#151:RE: Earthquakes in Haiti, : Detailed reply from Christine Herridge

[Robert Corbett <bcorbett@netcom.com>]

From: Christine M. Herridge <m.desastre@codetel.net.do>

	Regarding your interest in seismic research regarding the Dominican
Republic and Haiti, I would like to inform you that in January the Penrose
Conference was held in Puerto Plata, D.R., during which a great deal of
research was presented (dating back 15 and 20 years).  If you are
interested in visiting the website of the publications, please contact one
of the conveners, Dr. Nancy Grindlay - grandlayn@uncwil.edu from the Univ.
of North Carolina, or Dr. Paul Mann - paulm@utig.ig.utexas.edu from the
Univ. of Texas.  Specifically regarding seismic potential in Haiti, please
contact Dr. Eric Calais - calais@faille.unice.fr  who has done recent gps
studies of Hispaniola and has a very interesting model of strain and
vertical displacement.  Another expert on research in the D.R. is Dr.
William McCann - Esc@envisionet.net who was involved in the USAID funded
program here 15 years ago and can tell you what happened.

	In any event, the data show that the plate border dynamics are quite
significant and that the two major faults crossing the island, one to the
north and the other in the south - which runs the entire Haitian peninsula
- are both considered quite dangerous due to the time elapsed since the
last major earthquake.  The Septentrional fault (the northern system) is
comparable to the San Andreas Fault system in California and has not
released energy in over 800 years which means that approximately 4 to 8
meters of left lateral slippage has already accumulated and should it be
released, could register 8.0 or higher on the Richter Scale (with no
forewarning).  The soil conditions on the island have evidenced severe
liquefaction which is a considerable threat to infrastructure such as dams,
bridges and highways and particularly the Artibonito watershed on the
Haitian-Dominican border.

	I hope this has contributed to the discussion and assisted in refering you
to additional sources of information.

Best regards,

	Christine M. Herridge
	Dominican Disaster Mitigation Committee