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#4416: the Election Results

From: Max Blanchet <MaxBlanchet@worldnet.att.net>

Based on information posted on SICRAD's site,

according to Jessie Manigat who worked with the

95 CEP at a high level, all of the votes were taken

into account in determining the percentages in 95.

Whatever actually happened did not create much of a fuss

I suspect because the Lavalas majority was still whole

-- OPL, MOP, PLB, elatriye -- in 95 and there was not much

of an oppositin to make a fuss!

As pointed by Arthur, because of the unsusual situation

on May 21 whereby people voted for two senators and

even 3 in the Centre or Artibonite, the total vote

-- based either on the top four vote getters or correctly on

all the candidates -- had to be divided by 2 or 3 to arrive

at the correct denominator.

Mathematically, this is correct only if all voters voted

for 2 or 3 candidates. In the event some voters voted

for 1 or no senator, this factor should have been adjusted

downward, thus making the denominator larger and thereby

reducing the percentage even more. The correct factor could

have been determined using statistical sampling of the votes

cast in each department.

The OAS made that point (on the need to adjust the factor

downward) clear I believe in the letter from Marville to Manus.

I was hoping that some kind of a deal would have been arrived

at before the publication of the final results by the CEP.

I am afraid the CEP/Préval/Aristide have crossed the Rubicon and

I do not know how this is going to be resolved.