9176: Incertitude in the Haitian Politic (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Senou <senou@yahoo.com>

Everyone knows that we are emotional, but in that
emotion we have to bring some reason which might be
difficult unless an experienced and well-grounded
person is present. I urge you to stay away from
politic of self-destruction, remember whatever you say
or write cannot be taken back with a mere apology. 
Lately, we heard that the Lavalas camp and the
Convergence are about to resume their negotiation, but
both camps are accusing each other.  Lavalas wants the
international community to release the fund and the
Convergence is playing it last card to make sure the
Government remains broke. Who is going to win? Either
way the Convergence had already won, a group of 15
unpopular groups had gained the world attention and
now it is getting attention inside the country.  Why
?Van Grankou pap ka kampe pou lontan, frè-m? it is the
only weapon the convergence has under its possession
and it is being used effectively. 
	Now, what is the majority? If you have 100 people in
the room 95 are completely illiterate form group L and
5 are well-educated form group C. which one has the
majority? if you think majority in numbers, my friends
?Vous avez l?Esprit en Espagne et vous etes en train
de vivre dans l?irréel du présent? majority is the
people who have the most knowledge and can use it for
their own interest. In the two groups above, one has
an apparent majority and the other has a real
majority, which one? Now, which group has the real
power? The international community has recognized
openly the convergence group which put it in a
position to influence any negotiation. 
	Again another round of negotiation is going to start
13 days from now, the Lavalas is expected to make more
concession and  the Convergence may reject all. The
Convergence is going to seek for a new Prime Minister.
The president will be forced to take a primer minister
outside of his party, Bazin may be the likely choice
since he is a moderate, Latortue can be the ideal
choice if these folks are serious about resolving the
crisis. Again another card is going to play by the
Senate, once Lavalas and the convergence reached a
compromise the Senators might vote on the immunity
issue which can be the last blow to the lavalas
Government. 


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