12785: Haitians' growing discontent with Aristide may force U.S. to act (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Felix Edouard <loveayiti@hotmail.com>

Mon, Aug. 19, 2002
Miami Herald Page 1A


Haitians' growing discontent with Aristide may force U.S. to act

President Aristide's promises go unfulfilled, and unrest grows
BY NANCY SAN MARTIN


PORT-AU-PRINCE -- The two times President Jean-Bertrand Aristide of Haiti
took office since 1991, euphoric supporters filled the streets singing
praises for a charismatic priest who was supposed to rescue them from the
embrace of misery.

Armed with shovels, rakes, brooms and paintbrushes, they spruced up
buildings, walls and facades to welcome their beloved leader with shouts of
''Viv Titid'' or ''Long live Titid,'' an affectionate nickname.

Many of those supporters and their children still sing during
demonstrations. But the lyrics have changed.

``For years now we've been in misery . . . It's still the same thing. Down,
down, down with Aristide.''

A series of blunders during the past two years have unleashed a powerful
wave of anti-government sentiment that threatens to dismantle Aristide's
popular base. As the majority of Haitians grow increasingly weary of living
in squalor, the president's dwindling political stature could set in motion
a chain of events that would force the United States to take action,
observers say.

The dilemma facing policymakers is to determine the ''way to stability,''
said James Morrell, executive director of the Haiti Democracy Project, a
Washington-based think tank. ``Something has really changed in Haiti. The
divine mandate is over.''

Among the contributing factors spreading discontent across the Caribbean
nation:

• A cooperative pyramid scheme that has affected large segments of the
middle class. Traditionally, cooperatives in Haiti pool member resources to
invest in farming, fishing and housing with revolving loan accounts
generally offering a 4 percent annual rate of return. But cooperatives that
arose during the past three years, offering rates of at least 10 percent,
are on the brink of collapse amid allegations they were used to launder drug
money, costing investors $200 million;

• A fuel shortage that has reduced electrical service to as little as three
hours a day. Tapped-out fueling stations recently bumped up the price of
fuel on the black market and crippled transportation and deliveries of food
and other supplies to outlying areas;

• A stalemate in negotiations for an accord between the government and its
opposition, which would help dislodge millions of dollars in international
aid. The May 2000 elections, swept by Aristide's Lavalas Family party, were
fraught with irregularities and cries of voter fraud. The dispute is over
how many seats the opposition should hold in the Haitian parliament;

• Widespread corruption and an ill-equipped police force of less than 3,000
officers for a nation of more than 8 million.

''The prospects simply aren't good,'' said Steve Horblitt, a political
scientist and longtime analyst of U.S.-Haiti relations. ``The government of
Haiti continues its long history of not being a provider of services but an
extractor.

''What happens in Haiti affects the United States,'' said Horblitt, who
works for Creative Associates International Inc., a Washington consulting
firm. ``This administration needs to have a real clear reexamination of
policy. The U.S. can help Haiti, but it can't help without a partner there.
We need to be very clear about our interests and our principles and we need
to make it clear to that gentleman [Aristide] that we're not playing.''

By the end of the month, parents who are already strapped financially will
be faced with the costs of sending their children back to school. And a
budget crunch may mean no money to pay teachers.

''Haiti is always like a fire waiting for a spark to set it off,'' said a
Western diplomat. ``The next days will be telling to see how much momentum
is generating from this anti-Aristide movement.''

''There is a simmering situation,'' said the diplomat, who spoke on
condition of anonymity. ``There is more political tension than there has
been in awhile.''

`STOLEN OUR MONEY!'

Violent episodes have left more than a dozen people dead, forced journalists
into hiding or exile and dragged the Organization of American States into
the internal turmoil with an investigation into a Dec. 17 attack on the
National Palace that contradicted the government's claim of a failed coup
attempt.

But the most dramatic event was an Aug. 2 jailbreak in Gonaives that marked
the first time in which Haiti's poor -- the core of Aristide's support --
backed calls by two well-known fugitives for Aristide's removal.

Since then, acts of defiance have been reported in several places including
L'estere, Port-de-Paix, St. Marc, Petit-Goave and Cap-Haitien. Last week,
striking longshoremen in Port-au-Prince built flaming tire barricades on the
seaside boulevard, threatening to block the capital port until they are paid
a traditional back-to-school bonus.

''The government has stolen our money!'' demonstrators shouted. About 80
percent of Haitian education is in private hands, and school fees have
followed the trend in inflation, which has increased almost 90 percent in
six years.

''We want the whole international community to understand that Aristide was
behind a lot of the bad things that have happened in this country,'' said
Edmond Saintil, 28, a leader of one of several political organizations in
Raboteau, a shanty town in Gonaives and former Aristide stronghold. ``Is the
international community going to help us or are they going to let us die?''

STOKING THE COALS

Aristide, whose rise to power began with Haiti's liberation theology
movement, was able to galvanize public support by offering a dream of a
Haiti with an economy with jobs for all; a security force that would rid the
streets of armed thugs; and government programs that would reduce the number
of children who go to sleep hungry.

But he has been unable to deliver on any of these promises because of his
failure to overcome the unending political intrigue. The unresolved dispute
with the opposition damaged Haiti's international standing, obliging foreign
governments to withdraw offers of aid that Aristide could have used to
re-ignite the economy.

Inside the country, a number of incidents during his tenure have damaged
Aristide's reputation, but the public outcry by former supporters wasn't
evident until the Gonaives jailbreak in which 159 prisoners escaped.

One of the fugitives, longtime Aristide opponent and convicted murderer Jean
Tatoune, has faded into the background and his whereabouts are unknown.
Another escapee, Amiot ''Cubain'' Metayer, remains in Gonaives. But he is no
longer calling for Aristide's ouster and now has a team of lawyers for a
defense that will likely include a request for amnesty on charges of his
involvement in the Dec. 17 palace attack.

However, his original call for the replacement of Aristide seemed to strike
a chord with many of his countrymen. There appears to be no way for Aristide
to regain his popularity quickly.

''I don't agree with violent methods, burning tires and buildings, that is
not democratic,'' said Victor Benoit, a leader with an opposition
multi-party alliance known as Democratic Convergence. ``But Metayer started
something by saying that Aristide needs to leave. These words are
significant and strong to most of the opposition parties in the country.''

MORE MIGRANTS

One measure of the discontent is the continuing wave of migrants desperate
to get out of Haiti at any cost. Bahamian authorities have picked up about
2,500 Haitian migrants this year, at least twice as many as all of last
year. Fearing more will flee political unrest, the Royal Bahamian Defense
Force has stepped up patrols around Inagua, a popular drop-off point.

For many, the dream of improving their lives by staying home has vanished.

''Things have been getting worse day to day,'' said an elderly shopkeeper in
Cap-Haitien who declined to give his name. ``Those who don't have work don't
eat.''

Nearby, a scrawny teenager who hauls merchandise on a wheelbarrow to earn
money to help his family, sat pondering during a short break.

Asked what he was thinking, Michele Jean Pierre replied: ``What's going to
happen to my country.''

This report was supplemented by information from The Associated Press.






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