13841: This Week in Haiti 20:37 11/27/2002 (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

"This Week in Haiti" is the English section of HAITI PROGRES
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                           HAITI PROGRES
              "Le journal qui offre une alternative"

                      * THIS WEEK IN HAITI *

                  November 27 - December 3, 2002
                          Vol. 20, No. 37

CLASS ANALYSIS OF A CRISIS
by Kim Ives

This past week saw dueling demonstrations between thousands of pro-
and anti-government marchers in Haiti. Political tension, violence and
lawlessness are growing. Telephone calls and Internet chat rooms are
filled with rumors and speculation about how events will unfold.

To understand the nature of the crisis shaking Haiti today, it is
essential to understand the class forces at play.

The destabilization campaign against the Haitian government is being
led by the George W. Bush faction of the U.S. bourgeoisie, which is
arch-reactionary and hostile to regimes which even pay lip-service to
a progressive agenda, as Aristide once did. Two conservative retreads
from the previous Bush administration, Undersecretary of State for the
Americas Otto Reich and Ambassador to the Organization of American
States (OAS) Roger Noriega, are spearheading the campaign to uproot
Aristide, whom they charge is becoming an "illegitimate president" of
a "pariah state," even as other OAS states stand by wringing their
hands at the plight of the besieged president.

Meanwhile, the majority of the Haitian bourgeoisie, as represented by
the Association of Industries of Haiti (ADIH), the Chamber of Commerce
and of Industry of Haiti (CCIH) and, more globally, the Civil Society
Initiative (ISC), has allied itself with the forces of its age-old
rival, the landed oligarchy or "grandons," whose purest recent
political manifestation was the Duvalier dictatorship (1957-1986). The
armed expression of the "grandons" under the Duvaliers was the Tonton
Macoutes, who were the eyes, ears, and fists of this class. The
remnants and descendants of this brutal corps live on in Haiti.
Neo-Duvalierist political representatives are often referred to, in
Haitian political parlance, as the Macoute sector.

This "Macouto-Bourgeois" alliance is embodied in the Democratic
Convergence opposition front, which is funded by Washington's National
Endowment for Democracy (NED). Social democratic groups like the
Struggling People's Organization (OPL) of Gérard Pierre-Charles, the
National Progressive Revolutionary Party (PANPRA) of Serge Gilles, and
the National Congress of Democratic Movements (KONAKOM) of Micha
Gaillard and Victor Benoit  represent the bourgeois current, which
favors taking power through political wrangling facilitated by the OAS
and Washington's diplomatic muscle.

The Macoute current favors the "zero option," code for the violent
overthrow of Aristide. The Mobilization for National Development (MDN)
of Hubert DeRonceray, the Christian Movement for a New Haiti
(MOCHRENA) of Pastor Luc Mesadieu and, increasingly, the Democratic
Unity Confederation (KID) of Evans Paul are the foremost
representatives of this tendency.

Despite Washington's backing, the Convergence has very little support
among the masses across Haiti. But two weeks ago, it found
collaboration from former soldiers, as represented by former putschist
colonel Himmler Rébu. Aided by intense media coverage and increasingly
desperate living conditions, the Convergence/Rébu alliance was able to
pull several thousand people in its train during a Nov. 17 march in
Cap Haïtien (see Haïti Progrès, Vol. 20, No. 36, 11/20/02).

Since his emergence as a firebrand priest from Port-au-Prince's La
Saline slum, Aristide has had as his principal base Haiti's growing
lumpen proletariat. The ranks of this dispossessed, desperate class
have swelled as falling prices for coffee, cocoa and sugar, cheap food
dumping from the U.S., and neoliberal reforms have driven peasants off
the land and into Haiti's miserable slums. Aristide's populist sway
over this volatile class is the essence of his power, and it is
precisely what the Haitian ruling class fears and U.S. officials
distrust.

Aristide has attempted to sell himself to Washington as the
intermediary who can control and reign in this explosive underclass in
exchange for a few crumbs from the ruling class table. Hence he
periodically whips up the lumpen masses, and then soothes them, as a
demonstration of his power.

On the other hand, he has also sought to reassure the U.S. and Haitian
ruling classes by integrating businessmen and Duvalierists into
leading positions in his government and party, pushing it even more to
the right. The Lavalas Family party has sold off state industries,
begun the sale of Haitian territory for free-trade zones, cracked down
on union organizers, and acquiesced to treaties allowing unilateral
U.S. penetration of Haitian territory.

While the Clinton administration was willing to gamble on using
Aristide to control Haiti, the Bush administration is not. On the
contrary, they have counter-attacked. Working through the OAS,
Washington has pushed through two resolutions which compel Aristide to
arrest the popular organization leaders which effectively coordinate
the slum masses into a political force. Aristide is being to forced to
saw off the branch on which he sits.

By blocking some $500 million in international aid and loans to Haiti,
Bush has worked to discredit and trap Aristide, who made rosy campaign
promises to the masses now suffering and hungry as never before.
Disillusionment with Aristide is growing as he fails to deliver.

Meanwhile, other political forces have begun to emerge. For years, the
National Popular Party (PPN) has focused its organizing in the Haitian
peasantry, which is still Haiti's majority. In May and October, the
PPN organized two mass marches in Port-au-Prince and Cap Haïtien to
propose a "popular alternative" to the Convergence and Lavalas Family
(see Haïti Progrès, Vol. 20, No. 8, 5/8/02 and Vol. 20, No. 32,
10/23/02).

The Convergence may rend into rival factions as the crisis matures.
Already, one hard-liner, Leslie Manigat of the Assembly of Progressive
National Democrats (RNDP), broke away earlier this year from the
Convergence because of its continuing negotiations with the Lavalas
Family. Tensions are likely to grow as Washington, ultimately, decides
whether to try OAS-controlled elections next year or the "zero option"
sooner to remove Aristide and his party from power.

It is ironic, but historically predictable, that the bourgeoisie is
collaborating with former soldiers and Macoutes. In 1987, the
neo-Duvalierist sector, working through and with the Haitian Army,
massacred Haitian voters to block the election dreams of the
bourgeoisie, united at that time in the "Group of 57." The bourgeoisie
may come to rue today's alliance. "The Macoutes never share power with
anybody," the PPN's Secretary General Ben Dupuy warned in a Nov. 21
press conference.

Similarly, Aristide's decline has resulted from his foolish notion
that he could somehow appease Washington through concessions. He
cannot, a lesson Nicaragua's Sandinistas learned during the 1980s.

Aristide's party will likely provide little support or defense as the
crisis grows, and it may also fracture. Many of the Lavalas Family's
elected officials are archetypal petty bourgeois opportunists, intent
only on snagging a government post with which to enrich themselves
through corruption or personal projects like radio stations, bus
lines, or supermarkets.

Unfortunately for Washington, it has no viable alternative to Aristide
in Haiti and no Haitian Army (disbanded by Aristide in 1994) through
which to make a coup, as was done in 1991. The only standing military
force on the island is the 24,500-man Dominican Army, to which the
U.S. is now sending 20,000 M-16s as part of a multimillion dollar
military aid package (see Haïti Progrès, Vol. 20, No. 36, 11/20/02).
Some 1000 U.S. soldiers will also be stationed in the Dominican
Republic, supposedly for training purposes. Most certainly, both U.S.
and Dominican forces will be poised for a military intervention into
Haiti if and when the moment comes. Ironically, this scenario looms as
Haiti prepares to celebrate the bicentennial anniversary of its Jan.
1, 1804 independence.

Despite this ominous outlook, the Haitian people have managed to foil
Washington's best laid plans repeatedly over the past 16 years since
the fall of the Duvalier regime. Whatever unfolds in the weeks ahead,
the Bush administration and its Haitian allies can expect fierce
resistance from a nation and a generation which has learned many
lessons and shed many illusions on its march toward democracy and
independence.

All articles copyrighted Haïti Progrès, Inc. REPRINTS ENCOURAGED
Please credit Haïti Progrès.

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