13846: Stanley: Fw: Aristide Has No Future: Former U.S. Ambassador Carney (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Lucas Stanley <maloukwi@yahoo.com>

Aristide Has No Future: Former U.S. Ambassador Carney

Carney Frances Kerry, Reuters, 2002-11-27

MIAMI, Nov 27 (Reuters) - A wave of unrest in Haiti
has exposed
President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's shaky rule and if
the situation unravels
further could pose an unwelcome problem for U.S.
President George W. Bush.
     At a time when Washington's focus abroad is on
its continuing drive
against terrorism and possible war in Iraq, the
prospect of turmoil in the
Caribbean and a flow of boat people would be awkward
for the United States,
analysts said .
     Over the past week, dissatisfaction with Aristide
and with a worsening
economy has flared, with thousands of people calling
for the president's
ouster in rallies in several cities across the
impoverished Caribbean
nation. Counter-protesters have turned out, and
violence has erupted
sporadically.
     "The big question is whether Aristide is going to
understand that he
has no future," said Timothy Carney, a former U.S.
ambassador to Haiti.
"Without massive reform, Haiti is once again headed
for kind of chaos that
has intermittently dogged its history."
     Henry Carey, a political science professor at
Georgia State
University, said he did not think Aristide's rule was
threatened for the
moment, but added the government had again shown it
had to use force to
quell unrest.
     Eight years after sending in troops to invade
Haiti and restore
Aristide to power, U.S. policy on Haiti revolved
largely on avoiding avoid
a mass influx of refugees, Carey said. Washington can
ensure this as long
as the Coast Guard continues to intercept and
repatriate boat people trying
to get to Florida, he said.
     "The Bush administration is not going to get
involved (in an
intervention) in Haiti," Carey added.
     However, some analysts say the United States
would be rattled by a
possible boat people exodus. The Coast Guard, which
intercepted some 25,000
Haitians at sea during an exodus in 1994, has a new
focus on security after
the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States.
     The U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba --
used in the past as a
staging post for Haitian boat people -- currently
serves as a prison for
Taliban and al Qaeda suspects from the Afghan war.
    After years of bloody dictatorships, Haiti's
fragile democracy was
barely taking root when Aristide, a former Roman
Catholic priest who had
been elected on a wave of grass-roots support, was
ousted in a military
coup just seven months into his first term in 1991.
    President Bill Clinton sent in 20,000 U.S. troops
in 1994 to reinstate
Aristide. But Washington's relations with Aristide
have soured as critics
contend he has used a heavy hand with political
opponents and the country
has failed to hold credible elections.
     Some argue the U.S. invasion should have been
followed up with more
"nation building" -- both to work on reforming the
economy and solidifying
Haiti's democracy.
     "We shouldn't have just upped and left," said
James Morrell, an
advisor to Aristide while in exile and now head of a
policy group called
the Haiti Democracy Project. "We should have stayed to
ensure good
institutions were established."
     Morrell said the current situation in Haiti "has
the look of the
beginning of the unraveling, but that's as far as you
could go. I don't see
any evidence Aristide is going to leave or be pushed
out."
     Aristide stepped aside as constitutionally
mandated in 1996, his place
taken by protege Rene Preval. He was re-elected in
2000 for a second term
that has been marked by a bitter feud with the main
political opposition
over the results of parliamentary elections in 2000
and increasing
disillusion among many of the country's 8 million
inhabitants as living
conditions worsen in the poorest country in the
Americas.
     Foreign donor countries have withheld aid worth
hundreds of millions
of dollars because of the stalemate over the
elections. Aristide's
government has blamed this for many of the country's
current woes.
     Washington has been strongly critical of
Aristide.
     "On virtually all fronts, from the timely
accounting of its actions
taken with respect to the political violence of last
December, to ending
impunity, to disarmament, to reparations, to
counternarcotics, to election
security, the government has simply not moved with
enough purpose or
effectiveness," said then-assistant secretary of state
for the western
hemisphere Otto Reich in October.
     For Lawrence Pezzullo, a retired ambassador who
was special envoy to
Haiti under Clinton and is a stern critic of Aristide,
the 1994 invasion
showed military action was not a ticket to democracy.
He said the
experience could be a lesson for Washington if it is
to seek to replace
Iraq's President Saddam Hussein.
     "I don't think using troops creates democracy,"
Pezzullo said. "Before
you go talking about knocking over somebody, you had
better think where
you're going to go with it."

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