14142: Edouard -News- U.S. must take lead in developing a peaceful transition plan for (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Felix Edouard <loveayiti@hotmail.com>

Sun, Dec. 15, 2002
Miami Herald - Focus Section

U.S. must take lead in developing a peaceful transition plan for Haiti
By LAWRENCE PEZZULLO

Haitians have taken to the streets in protest against the government of
President Jean-Bertrand Aristide. The economy is in shambles, and political
repression is rampant.

In Haiti, street demonstrations traditionally have been organized by the
authorities in power. The recent demonstrations are dramatically different.
They have been organized by the growing number of opponents of Aristide and
are attended by thousands of poor from the teeming slums -- a latter a
somber indication of the depth of despair permeating Haitian society.

Opposition leaders, including Evans Paul, the ex-mayor of Port-au-Prince who
was supporter of Aristide, have called for the president's resignation.
Aristide, comfortable and secure for the moment inside his guarded palace,
can be expected to ignore the call, but at his peril. The time for a
gracious and noble exit is coming to a close. The international community
should focus on the crisis in Haiti now while there still is time to craft a
peaceful outcome.

The critical question is: What or who would replace Aristide if he could be
induced to resign? Here the Haitians opposed to Aristide and members of the
international community concerned about Haiti's future have a common
interest in planning. It occurred in the twilight of the ''Baby Doc''
Duvalier regime, leading to, among other things, the formation of informed
citizen groups. They played instrumental roles including the framing of a
new constitution after Duvalier fled the country.

What should be done now? First, the Haitians on the island and in the
diaspora who are respected for their democratic credentials must agree on a
unified entity made up of all elements of the civil society. These players
would be willing to put aside partisan concerns for the good of the country.

The new entity then must develop a transition plan that begins with the
installation of a provisional authority on Aristide's departure that would
govern for a short, predetermined period of time. The people selected to
serve in the transitional authority would have to pass muster with the
various opposition factions and should forgo any ambitions to form part of a
new government.

IMPLEMENT ELECTIONS

The provisional authority would serve as the government of Haiti in all
respects during its short tenure. Its most important task, in addition to
maintaining public order and assuring the international community that it
would respect and fulfill all agreements entered into by past Haitian
governments, would be to organize and implement national and local elections
within a specified period of time.

It could appeal to international and private agencies that have worked in
Haiti. Those with expertise in elections could offer financial support,
advice and monitoring. The goal should be the fairest elections in the
history of Haiti.

The provisional authority would inherit a mess -- to put it lightly. It
would have its hands full attending to a police force that has been
politicized; state enterprises that have become the havens of corruption; a
decimated economy and, perhaps worst of all, a body politic that has been
abused and, in the process, disabused of any notion that government is there
to serve them. A provisional authority would desperately need all the help
and advice that the international community could offer.

Twenty-five years ago, Anastasio Somoza presided in Nicaragua. He was heir
to a dynasty that saw his father and brother rule before him. The economy
was strong and growing, but beneath the surface was simmering resentment of
his heavy-handed rule.

In early 1978, sparked by the assassination of an opposition editor, all
hell broke loose. Mobs took to the streets, businesses shut down and police
posts were attacked. Somoza overreacted and used repressive means to curb
the rioting and demonstrations. Somoza ruled but couldn't govern.

ARROGANCE FROM POWER

With the country in chaos, the Organization of American States attempted to
negotiate a peaceful resolution. Somoza played for time, re-arming his
military, then aborted the OAS effort. The moderates from all sectors of the
Nicaraguan society who had joined the negotiations suffered a crippling loss
of face. That left violence as the only alternative. Radicals who favored
armed conflict took center stage. Six months later, Somoza fled the country,
surrendering power to young revolutionaries ill-equipped to govern. The
country's agony was prolonged. Today, Nicaraguans are still paying the price
of Somoza's folly.

Haiti is not Nicaragua. But the arrogance that comes from absolute power is
universal, and Aristide is demonstrating that he is no different from Somoza
on that score. He, too, rules but cannot govern. These two strongmen
employed high-ticket lobbyists to paint a rosy picture of their sordid
regimes. Each marshaled blocs of support in the U.S. Congress.

But, like the Wizard of Oz, all the smoke and mirrors are of little use now.
Aristide has lost his legitimacy to rule. His misuse of power and corruption
have turned the majority of Haitians against him. Peace for the
long-suffering Haitian can be built only on regime change, but one followed
by open and fair elections among candidates who are made to live within the
constraints of the Haitian Constitution.

MORE BOAT PEOPLE?

Washington might want to turn its attention elsewhere, but if history is a
guide it won't be able to. Haiti and the United States have had a symbiotic
relationship since they both emerged from colonial rule two centuries ago.

Haiti will demand our full attention as internal chaos spawns more boat
people. Rather than wait until the 11th hour, it would behoove the Bush
administration to initiate early consultations within the OAS and with the
friends of Haiti in the United Nations to develop a policy approach to the
crisis in Haiti.

Either the United States takes a leadership role in developing a
transitional strategy or events in Haiti, as in Nicaragua 25 years ago, will
spin out of control.

Lawrence Pezzullo was a special advisor on Haiti in the early days of the
Clinton administration and on the advisory board of the Haiti Democracy
Project.


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