15287: Senou: What is going to take place in Haiti? (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Senou <senou@yahoo.com>

What is going to take place in Haiti?

Haiti’s today has an elected president but there is no
democracy, the congressional election was tainted and
should have been redone. The mandate of that CEP was
expired at the completion of the congressional
election and a new CEP should have been formed to
conduct the presidential election. The departing
president Mr. René Preval had unilaterally extended
the mandate of that CEP which was contested by many.
Therefore, this move was illegal and unconstitutional
according the Haitian law.

In life, one has to be fair and objective, the current
Lavalas leader could have won easily the presidential
election and still can carry any fair and free
election in Haiti today and for the next five years.
This is a fact and ignoring that fact can prolong that
crisis for years to come, oops for the next 2 years.

There is also a strong opposition to the Lavalas
leader in Haiti but that opposition cannot win on a
popular vote, which is the best way to change a
government if we are talking about democracy.

The Haitian dilemma

An unpopular but powerful opposition vs. a popular
Lavalas leader; at the beginning, the Lavalasians had
underestimated the opposition and trying to bypass
Washington. A phone call to EU from Washington had
indeed block all aid. Rich people anywhere in the
world speak the same “language” and they can
understand each other very well and Poor people are
fighting against each other for no apparent reason.
The International community and the EU had made it
clear of what need to be done in order to resume any
assistance. They control the World Bank and anyone who
could have given some assistance. And to make this
matter even worst Haitians in Haiti and the Diaspora
don’t have the same enthusiasm to support the lavalas
leader. So the lavalas leader has no choice:
Compromise for his survival or remain defiant that can
lead to his departure or demise.

Washington, Ottawa and now France are not playing any
game, the EU is not going to bug what alternative do
you have? Caricom cannot do crap, some pacific
countries that call the EU to resume assistance to
Haiti cannot do crap either, these folks are just
making noise they cannot deliver, why they don’t get
together, raising some funds and send to Haiti. Do not
waste a second of your time listening to these folks
who are just reacting on emotion.

The Lavalas leader had already lost 3 years, he has
two years to go. He may decide to spend two good years
or two rocky years, that’s his choice.
Fact: the Haitian opposition has nothing to win,
nothing to lose for not cooperating and these folks
know that they cannot win in any fair and free
election. Period. So they are not interested in any
election. They will always find a reason not to take
part in the CEP and this CEP cannot be formed without
them according the international community. No way
out, and fighting a losing battle is suicidal.

The best plausible scenario:

A share of power: many might be against it but it is
the only option available for a peaceful compromise.
It could have been great for these three factions: the
Opposition, the Lavalas and the Convergence to share
power, create a stable government that should control
Haiti for the next 2 or 4 years before any election. A
share of power with the Lavalas does not necessary
mean that a particular individual has to be included
in order to make it work, but some key people shall be
included; otherwise, it may not work.

Or
Do nothing, which is the likely scenario, the current
government will remain intact, the current Lavalas
leader will finish his mandate but he shall not be
allowed to organize any election. At the completion of
his term, a care taker government will take over, it
shall come from a consensus among various groups in
Haiti that should have the support of the Haitian
people and the international community, Resumption of
financial assistance to Haiti and life goes on. NB: as
long as the Bush administration is in power, the
Lavalas government will not receive any help from
Washington and the World Bank will not unfreeze the
loan to Haiti which is sad but what can you do about
it? The blockage of this loan is illegal under the
international law but besides complaining what can you
do about it.  The aid has been blocked for the past
three years and will remain block for the next two
years or until an acceptable coalition government
according their rules take over. You are not in the
position to dictate unless you are dreaming. Where is
fairness? Well life is not fair, you will see a bunch
of cars drivers driving over the speed limit and the
traffic officer will stop only one person.

Fact:
US, Canada and now France are not interested in any
compromise. The Lavalas in 2001 had lost a golden
opportunity to enter into a compromise but he Lavalas
leader had made a colossal mistake in leaving the
negotiation to visit his colleague in Cuba. A  serious
and responsible leader shall not leave a negotiation
that can seal the fate of a country to visit aboard.
These folks have been caught by surprise, they did not
read between the lines and they did not foresee a
sudden change in the world policy where Big muscles
rule.

What is going to take place in Haiti?

 Nobody knows. But something is going to take place;
pretty soon you are going to see emerging a coalition
of the willing and this new coalition will have a
completely new agenda. As days go by, the chance for a
peaceful resolution of the Haitian crisis diminished.
How this crisis had started? A simple congressional
election.  How is it going to end? This is a one
billion dollars question. I hope common sense will
prevail but if these folks are not willing to meet
halfway somebody must intervene and settle that issue
once and for all by any mean.

Senou


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