16084: Senou: Haiti: Summer 2001 and Summer 2003 (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Senou <senou@yahoo.com>

Haiti: Summer 2001 and Summer 2003
Oops!

July 2001 the Haitian leaders missed a Golden
opportunity to reach a negotiated settlement and today
both sides are sorry for letting it go with the
expectation of finding a better deal. Don’t ever
postpone anything for tomorrow. This desire tomorrow
is reserved only to dreamers but that tomorrow may
never come. Since July 2001 the United States fought 2
unfinished wars: the Afghan war and the Iraq war and
now there is mounted pressure for the sole policeman
of the world to intervene in Liberia. The crisis in
Liberia has reached the point of no return and Mr.
Taylor has his last chance to leave without facing
prosecution, he is a U.S. graduate and he understands
the political structure of the world, I can say
without any doubt that he will step down and soon. The
sooner the better, I don’t believe he will make the
Saddam’s Hussein mistake. Regardless of what many
might say, the Saddam’s Family regime controlling all
over Iraq is thing in the past.  They might do some
collateral damages, which are expected under any
occupation, but the Saddam era was over when we sent
the first regiment.

Today we can say without a doubt that the Palestinians
and the Israelites are closer to reach a peaceful
settlement than Haiti. Israelites and the Palestinians
know what will happen or the consequences if either
side violates the agreement.

Power is never given; power is taken.  A classic
example was the downfall of Somoza in Nicaragua, the
downfall of Batista in Cuba, and the imminent downfall
of Taylor in Liberia, or let say, he chooses to go to
exile to Nigeria. The rebels control 70% of the
country and the capital is expected to fall at
anytime, so these types of individuals are not going
to gamble with their life, after revoking the war
crime over his head, he will definitely leave like
Baby Doc.

In Haiti, we see a bunch of folks who are afraid of
dying sitting on their …and talking....  I might be
wrong and I hope so but the Haitian situation is not
going to be resolved peacefully. A military solution
is needed to resolve that present crisis once and for
all.  The only reason that prevents Haiti from heading
East is because the Soviet Empire is no more and this
could have been done easily.

But Haitians don’t want to go East and this is why the
current regime will fail. When the former Haitian
president Mr. Aristide chose a Communist to head the
government to pave the way for his return, he knew
that the United States would never accept him and
since both are leftist they wouldn’t have any problem
to deal with each other. Now this is another story.

The international community is going to make a
statement with Haiti, the U.S.  International policy
has taken a beating recently and will take its revenge
far away from the Middle East. Afghanistan is still a
hot potato, Iraq is a nightmare and this situation has
the propensity of becoming a second Vietnam, Mr.
Taylor, the chosen son of America is expected to take
exile or die if he refuses to step down at any time,
and the Israelis-Palestinians conflict had escalated
after President Bush personally got involved. With all
these defeats, Haiti has become a classic case for the
Yankee to save some face and this is why, we shall not
take the warning of the U.S. Secretary General, Gen.
Collin Powell lightly.

United States is in quest of rejuvenating its
international posture and France has a strong desire
of getting rid of the Lavalas government. Today, the
United States is seeking new friends in the world to
help with the Iraqi situation that has become a
headache or an incurable cancer, people are dying
everyday in Iraq and more rainy days are ahead. An
under table coalition between France and the United
States to dispose the Lavalas government is imminent,
this might even be done publicly to lift the Americans
moral who felt betrayed by France for not siding with
them.

Don’t forget score of young American teenagers have
given their lives to liberate France. Despite of
existing animosity between these two countries,
American citizens expect France to always side with
them. France in the fifties had started unilaterally
the Vietnam War and it had called the U.S. to help out
and we lost more young men.

Haiti is a golden opportunity for France and the U.S.
to repair that damage they will join with Canada that
has wanted to become a super power in the region.
These folks have money and an untested Royal Army, so
Haiti may become a testing ground.

Another problem: Haiti is surrounded with score of
poor countries and most of them will not hesitate to
sell their vote to legitimize any military action
against Haiti. We expect two or three countries that
would never approve any military strike against Haiti:
Venezuela, Mexico and maybe Columbia; the Dominican
Republic may abstain but if these folks are looking to
take revenge for voting against them (when sharing the
island, you are condemned to live next to each other
for life, so one must be very tactful); the Lavalas
government voted for Mexico and clearly the Dominican
Republic was not going to have enough votes;
therefore, the Lavalas government should have
abstained and today these folks may pay a heavy price
for not playing fair.

As of today, the Lavalas, the Convergence and the
Haitian Opposition have 54 days to reach a political
settlement. If they want to spare the country from
another humilation, I urge them to negotiate seriously
among themselves and put something in place before
September. The game is over and it is not the time to
do any philosophical analysis. For the past three
years, the United States had remained quiet and
watched the negotiation. Early last month, during the
last OAS session in Chili Gen. Collin Powell had
publicly stated that if no deal is reached, the
Haitian situation is going to be reevaluated.  Since
then, no one has made any attempt to find a solution.
Many used to stay that Bush did not win or stole the
election but he had shown to you that he is indeed the
commander, he waged two wars, he bankrupted the
country after 15 days in office, change a surplus to
deficit and this government is going to make another
statement in the Caribbean.

Another view and this is why the General is going to
act in full force, we do not respect Gen. Collin
Powell because he is a black man, if he were a
difference race, we could have paid more attention.
Some of you suffer the “ blancophile” ’s disease.  My
friends, Americans may have problem with each other in
the U.S. but when they are dealing with other country,
they are united and act as one.

It would be in the interest of the Haitian leaders to
enter into a compromise before September.  At this
present moment, they have received a warning, which
would be followed with a deadline and my friends there
would be consequences.  We are falling in a trap; all
these are to prevent Haiti from celebrating
peacefully, its bicentennial anniversary. We will go
into history as the only country that has not
capitalized in its bicentennial independence. Hard to
believe and time is running out and this is one of the
reasons HCR in Atlanta did not celebrate May 18, 2003.
For me, personally, it is not just chilling out and
having fun.  It has to be a commitment for Haitians to
understand their role in this world and take things
seriously.

I urge each and everyone to make an effort to
reiterate May 18, 1803 in your region but before you
have to understand the significance of May 18. If you
think only of getting together and organize parties,
you miss the boat and you don’t have to wait for that
occasion to get drunk. Our ancestors who were mostly
illiterate did it and why we who pretend to be
educated folks are unable to reiterate it or even come
close to it.
“If it is not me, my children, my family or a close
friend, I will destroy it.” This politic of
self-destruction must stop otherwise we can say …

Those of you who understand the Haitian politic, you
know already that the Lavalas, the Convergence and the
Opposition are going to play the wait and see game.
Nothing will take place before September and a few
folks will remind Gen. Collin Powell who might be too
busy in dealing with the post Taylor’s Liberia, the
Palestinian dilemma, the Iraqi Cacos, of his warning.
Two months from now, no one can really predict what is
going to take place, but the way things go right now,
it does not look good and Haiti future is in jeopardy.
But one thing remains certain the country will
survive, but who is going to lead that country? Nobody
knows. But Haiti needs a neutral person, or a
centrist. That person must put in place a broad
coalition government that should include some members
of the Lavalas family, the Convergence and this
existing Opposition.  It is about time for these folks
to understand the language of compromise; otherwise
they might see an extension of this summer season.

Joseph Alfred
P.O. BOX 334
Smyrna, GA 30081


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