16801: Karshan: Armed Opposition Now Part of a new Strategy (Haiti Support Group-London) (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: MKarshan@aol.com

Haiti Briefing No. 50 - September 2003

Editorial from the bi-monthly newsletter of the Haiti Support Group
(available by annual subscription - contact: haitisupport@gn.apc.org )

Armed opposition now part of a new strategy.

With apparent guidance from the US International Republican Institute (IRI),
the anti-Aristide opposition is engaged in a three-pronged strategy to
undermine, and it hopes, eventually topple the government. If, in the
process, the
Haitian people suffer still more misery, this seems to be a price that not
only
must be paid, but is essential if the so-called 'zero option' of bringing the
government crashing down is to succeed.

Central to this reckless strategy since the disputed elections of May 2000 is
the clique of political party leaders grouped in the Democratic Convergence
coalition. With remarkable consistency, the Convergence parties have
stubbornly
refused all attempts to resolve the dispute. Three and half years on, and
with the terms of office of nearly all members of Parliament due to expire in
January, the Convergence is sticking to its tried and tested negativity. By
refusing to participate in elections before the Parliamentary term expires, it
clearly intends to force the President to govern by decree - all the easier
for it
then to redouble its cries of 'dictatorship'.

The Convergence's wrecking strategy has alienated the Haitian public (and
some diplomats), and it's glaring inability to build anything like a mass
protest
movement  probably accounts for the appearance of new opposition tactics in
2003. In a remarkable coincidence, they were put into action immediately after
Haitian opposition leaders met with IRI strategists in the Dominican Republic
in December 2002

The more benign prong of the new strategy was the formation of the 'Group of
184' so-called 'civil society' organisations. Although the group purports to
represent all sectors of Haitian society, it is more accurately described as
an
extension of the Civil Society Initiative Group  - a collection of business
and religious elite organisations, headed by the leading Methodist and
director
of the private schools' association, Rosny Desroches. The leader of the
Papaye Peasant Movement has lent the Group the names of its constituent
peasant
organisations, but the Group's essence is reflected in its choice of
spokesmen -
Maurice Lafortune, one time head of the petrol importers' association, and
André Apaid Jnr. from a rich and powerful business family.

Meanwhile, a different style of opposition activity has been unleashed in the
borderlands near the Dominican Republic. Since the middle of December 2002,
bands of former soldiers have launched a series of murderous attacks on
Lavalas
Family supporters and government officials. One such attack by 20 heavily
armed men put the country's main hydro-electric power station out of action in
early May. Two security guards were shot dead. Numerous other incidents over
the
last nine months - including attacks on police stations - have cost the lives
of a further eighteen people, including a judge and policemen.

The appearance of an armed opposition operating near to and from across the
border bears remarkable similarities to the 1980s Nicaraguan contra war. It's
not hard to see the same 'hidden hand' cooking up a Group of 184 'carrot',
complimented by an armed opposition 'stick'.