17775: Blanchet: Fw: Eyewitness report from Haiti by HSG member (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Max Blanchet <MaxBlanchet@worldnet.att.net>
From: <Tttnhm@aol.com>


Haiti Support Group (HSG) member, Christian Wisskirchen, reports on his
return from Haiti - 7 January 2004


I visited Haiti between 20th December and 5th January, together with HSG
members, Anne McConnell, and Phillip and Jane Wearne. I assume most of the
following observations will be shared by the other three, but I am obviously
only
speaking for myself.

When we arrived on 20th December, the airport and the city were being
readied
for the dignitaries expected for the Bicentennial ceremonies on 1st and 2nd
January. In typical Haitian fashion, things were happening last minute, and
it
was clear that the fancy tile flooring of the airport would not be ready on
time, but air-conditioning and carousels, as well as computers and arrival
procedures, were much improved.

Other than some flags on the airport road, a fresh coat of paint here and
there, and building work on the Champ de Mars (where spectator stands and a
massive steel structure were being erected - the latter looked like a
combination
of a mini-Eiffel tower and an eternal flame, and nobody knew what it was),
there were no signs that the population or even the government was preparing
for a
massive celebration. The general state of the capital appeared to me very
much like during my last visit in 1995; the exception being the revamped
Champ de
Mars. We also found new town squares in Cap-Haitien and Jeremie which would
do pride to any small Italian town (in particular the one in Cap). That's
pretty much all the visible improvements that I noticed.

Speaking to an obviously non-representative sample of a couple of dozen or
so
lower middle-class people (e.g., taxi drivers, tourist guides, etc.) in
Cap-Haitien, Jeremie and Port-au-Prince, there was little to no support for
the
government. Even Bishop Willy Romelus of Jeremie conceded, in an interview
with
him, that the last eight years had been wasted.

During our stay there were a number of demonstrations in the capital,
Port-au-Prince, led by the new opposition movement called the Group of 184,
which is
now about a year old. We managed to observe the anti-government
demonstration
on 1st January after we had observed the Bicentennial celebrations at the
National Palace. The main body of demonstrators was not larger than maybe
2,000,
but there were groups waiting to join at various points, making the total
size
difficult to assess. The police stopped the main column from progressing
along
John Brown towards the Palace, but things remained peaceful. However, the
student element is very radicalised, in particular since events at the
beginning
of December when the Human Sciences Department was ransacked and the Rector
severely injured by thugs allegedly in the pay of the government. After we
left
what looked like a peaceful standoff (with the police blocking the approved
march to ensure the are kept out of the view of the foreign dignitaries
present), some students then apparently initiated some violence and when we
returned
within an hour we saw evidence of the burning of several cars, including
police
vehicles, and many substantial road blocks had been set up with boulders.

The leadership of the Group of 184 does appear committed to a peaceful
transition of power and is concerned at the willingness of the students to
engage in
violence. Yet, even if some of the demonstrations attracted tens of
thousands, as Group of 184 claims, there does not appear to be a mass
mobilisation in
the capital - let alone across the country - on its way. Most people we met
appear disillusioned and have switched off from politics. The Lavalas
government
is perceived as ineffective and corrupt, but that is nothing new in Haiti.
Even if it does use paid thugs (the chimeres) - and there is little doubt it
does
- they are nowhere near as violent or oppressive as the FRAPH or the Tontons
Macoutes. Thus, there is not the immediate urge for people on small incomes
or
subsistence farmers to give up precious work time for political protest.
Also, poorer people will take a lot of convincing that the Group of 184,
which is
led by upper and middle class people, has their interests at heart.

On the other hand, the lack of support for Aristide was obvious from the
Bicentennial celebrations in Port-au-Prince. The roughly 10,000 people in
front of
the Palace on 1st January had clearly been bused in from all over the
country
-  the buses parked in the Champ de Mars each had a sign stating from which
town they had come. Also, another piece of evidence that these were selected
partisans, was a controlled 'invasion' of the Palace lawn organised by
government security officials, which would have been unlikely to have been
acceptable
to South African President Mbeki's security chiefs if the crowd had been a
spontaneous one (the unfortunate hiccup was that some tried to climb over
the
Palace steel fence which then collapsed on top of these spectators).

It still seems likely that among poor peasants and people from the slums
Aristide retains support which, though much diminished, is far stronger than
that
which the opposition could currently muster when it comes to elections.
Unless
it begins to venture much more outside the capital, and develops a positive
programme for the economic development of the poor majority, rather than
just
proposing a process for a peaceful takeover of power, there appears to be
little chance that Group of 184 can unseat the government any time soon.
Group of
184 sources told me that all this is in the pipeline, but that government
supporters have been preventing them from freely meeting with people in the
countryside.

As always, one must be cautious with regard to the intentions of the Haitian
bourgeoisie which has never in the past done much good for the poor, but it
does appear to me that there could finally be a realisation that they need
to
court the opinion of the majority if they don't want to drown themselves in
the
quagmire that Haiti is becoming. Certainly the political engagement of the
professional classes, sadly diminished by decades of exodus, is sorely
needed.
However, for the Group of 184 to have any chance at the polls (and they are
not
a party yet) they need to steer clear of failed and tainted Democratic
Convergence politicians, such as Evans Paul and Leslie Manigat, who
unfortunately
seem to have been able to piggyback onto the new opposition movement.

My fear is that while opposition protests have so far been largely conducted
in a peaceful fashion, they are being ignored by Aristide (though treated
with
some violence by his police). If Aristide does not step aside and allow a
proposed caretaker technocrat government in, there could then be a
temptation to
conduct a violent coup with the help of sections of the police (not all of
which appear totally loyal to the authorities, even at this stage) or from
former
Haitian Army members (some members of the bourgeoisie are hinting at this).

My hope is that even people in Group of 184 can recognise that a coup would
lead to chaos and/or backlash. What's happening in Gonaives could become the
norm in other parts of the country. It thus appears that a compromise with
Aristide would be desirable, but is unlikely given that Group of 184 is
saying it
would be prepared to work with some FL politicians but not with Aristide
himself. Aristide's government may have all sorts of very serious defects,
but the
opposition should also see that he not only has a mandate, but behaves on a
human rights level comparatively much better than many South and Central
American
regimes. In my opinion, the Group of 184 should be prepared to form a party,
participate in elections, and generally seek the democratic, albeit slow,
route to power. However, it may well be that Group of 184 will not be able
to
maintain its unity beyond the "Down with Aristide" policy which, so far, is
the
only policy it has. I pray that one or more new and credible parties will be
formed before too long.

In the end, there may also well be a lot more life in the FL (Lavalas
Family)
government if Aristide's wife, Mildred, runs in and wins the next
Presidential elections. With Mildred Aristide (a US-born lawyer) at the
helm, the
country's international isolation could quickly become a thing of the past.
Any
number of people we spoke to  - including some very well-placed observers -
said,
that the biggest problem with Aristide is that he does not listen to anyone,
not even his wife, and has cronies, rather than experts, running the State.
But
he is clearly preparing her for the succession, which may be the smartest
move
of his tenure (and not too bad for the country if she turns out to be her
own
woman).

Whatever may happen, it does appear to me that all political and social
forces need to pull together to get the place out of its misery, and I hope
we will
move beyond the never-ending blame game before there's yet another coup and
more wasted time.

Sorry for rambling on for so long…!

Christian Wisskirchen, London
cwisskirchen@freenet.co.uk



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This email is forwarded as a service of the Haiti Support Group.

See the Haiti Support Group web site:
www.haitisupport.gn.apc.org

Solidarity with the Haitian people's struggle for justice, participatory
democracy and equitable development, since 1992.
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