18307: Esser: Opposition movements in Haiti threaten country's stability (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: D. E s s e r <torx@mail.joimail.com>

Fri, Feb. 06, 2004

Opposition movements in Haiti threaten country's stability
BY TIM COLLIE
South Florida Sun-Sentinel

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. - (KRT) - The violent takeover of Haiti's
fourth largest city by a slum gang offers a frightening glimpse of
one possible future for the impoverished nation: Chaos.

Many Haiti watchers now fear a prolonged collapse similar to failed
states like Somalia or Liberia - especially if the United States and
the international community do not take a greater role in resolving
Haiti's many problems.

Wracked by worsening poverty and political violence, President
Jean-Bertrand Aristide's government may be losing control over key
areas of the country. Gonaives has been the scene of periodic
violence since September, when a major figure, Amiot "Cubain"
Metayer, was murdered. In the Central Plateau, another group known as
the Motherless Army, composed of former army members, has carried out
assassinations of government officials and sacked villages.

Meanwhile, the country's capital has been the scene of frequent large
protests by coalitions of students, civic groups, business leaders
and other members of the urban elite. They have been pushed together
by the continuing economic decay, as well as attacks on their ranks
by gangs linked to the government.

Though Aristide's government labels them all as one opposition
movement, there seem to be few links between these groups, and that's
what makes the situation so dangerous, some experts say.

There is no figure of Aristide's stature to counter Aristide, Haiti's
first democratically elected leader. There is no rival who commands
anywhere near the following that the former priest still has among
the poor.

If Aristide was overthrown, the various groupings of gang leaders,
politicos, urban elites and intellectuals could easily turn on each
other.

"That's why this is a very dangerous moment in Haiti, dangerous both
for the government and the peaceful opposition," said Robert Fatton,
a leading authority on Haiti at the University of Virginia. "If what
is happening in Gonaives is the opposition's vision for Haiti, then
the future is pretty grim indeed.

"I don't think these various groups are linked, but what happens in
Gonaives encourages the forces in Port-au-Prince, which then holds
marches and rallies and inspires the army in Gonaives to go that much
further," said Fatton, author of "Haiti's Predatory Republic: The
Unending Transition to Democracy." "But the only thing that unites
these groups is their hatred of Aristide. If he left tomorrow, you'd
have all kinds of struggles among the opposition. The whole country
could easily fall apart."

The resulting fragments would run the gamut from dedicated democratic
activists on one end of the political spectrum to a dark force of
drug traffickers and armed thugs whose alliances continually shift
based on power and money.

With only a national police force under his control - the army was
disbanded under international supervision in the 1990s - Aristide has
maintained power over Haiti's streets with armed gangs known as
chimere. These young toughs knock skulls and run drug and kidnap
rings in exchange for political patronage - many can be found working
as luggage handlers at the international airport.

That formula has worked for Aristide, diplomats and other observers
say, but it's unclear whether he or his political party still have
control over these gangs. Their clout swelled by drug money, many
chimere gangs now may be a power unto themselves. A similar situation
exists in Jamaica, where political parties lost control of their
street wings, which became the notorious drug posses.

"If the United States does give more support to the peaceful
opposition, the Group of 184 and other groups, then this is what
they're going to end up with - groups like the Cannibal Army," James
Morrell, a onetime Aristide adviser who now heads the
Washington-based Haiti Democracy Project. The Group of 184 is a
leading civic opposition group based in Port-au-Prince.

Thursday's uprising was led by a group formally known as the Cannibal
Army, now renamed the Artibonite Resistance Front. Based in the
shanty town of Robateau, they are a hardcore mix of former Aristide
supporters and elements of the FRAPH, a paramilitary squad that
menaced Haiti during the early 1990s, after Aristide was overthrown
during his first administration.

"These are not democrats by any means - they don't have a political
philosophy other than power and money," said Fatton.

When Aristide returned to power, he used them to menace his
opponents. Led by Metayer, the group controlled Gonaives as a
stronghold for Aristide's Lavalas Family Party for years. In 2002,
under international pressure, the government arrested Metayer. But
using a bulldozer, his supporters busted Metayer out of prison a
month later. The jailbreak also freed a slew of notorious prisoners,
including Jean Tatoune, who was serving a life sentence for a
massacre of Aristide partisans in 1994, during a period when some
5,000 Aristide partisans were murdered.

Metayer and Tatoune joined forces. The militia leader seemed to have
reached some arrangement with the government. Despite a warrant for
his arrest, he openly held court in Gonaives while the police claimed
to be searching for him. But in September, after an alleged meeting
with an Aristide emissary, his mutilated corpse was found with both
eyes shot out. Gonaives has been in a tense state ever since.

A revolt in Gonaives touches a nerve in Haiti, which is enjoying only
its first decade of democratic government after 200-year history of
instability and 30 military coups. It was there that Haiti's
independence was proclaimed January 1, 1804. In 1985, the city also
saw the first revolt against Jean-Claude Duvalier, which ultimately
led to that dictator's downfall in February, 1986.

"Right now I can't tell you where this is all going to go, but it
doesn't look good," said Alex Dupuy, a sociologist who has written
extensively on Haiti at Wesleyan University. "The opposition, in my
view, is not acting in the interests of the Haitian people. But
Aristide isn't acting in their interests either."

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