18412: Sylvain: Analysis of Current Revolt (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: patrick sylvain <sylvaipa@hotmail.com>

Politics is a science and not an emotional contest; neither it is a patriotic
tournament.

The Aristide government created and supported “Lame Wouj” the Red Army, better
known as the Cannibal army. As a matter of fact the “red army” should have been
implemented since 1991. The plan was for at least 600 men and women to receive
top-notch military training in order to protect the Lavalas regime from the
military.  According to Aristide, back in October of 1996 while Preval was
President, the army would be reinstituted but under a completely different
structure and one that would be under his command. …Amiot Mettayer or Cubain
was a long-time Aristide supporter and after Aristide’s return in 1994, Amiot
became a leader and recruiter for the “Red Army.”  Aristide always had
excellent relationship with Cubain until the State Department had requested his
arrest in 2001-02. Has Aristide or any other opportunist government has done,
he liquidated Cubain about six months ago.  Amiot’s brother, Peter (Butteur)
took lead of the Cannibal’s Army and turned it against Aristide.     …By the
way, even after Cubain had escaped from prison he was still seen amongst and at
times gave speeches at rallies on behalf of Lavalas.   The same is true for
René Civil, while the police was looking for him he was seen on television and
at times at the Palais National.


What Aristide miscalculated, is that by liquidated Cubain and five other
“Chimčres Operatives” in 2002 and 2003, part of his political and militant base
would collapse from beneath him and thus creating a centripetal effect that
would eventually lead to his own demise. The demise is what we’ve been
observing since December 5th, 2003.


Gonaives was simply a ticking-bomb. And if Aristide was indeed a good leader
and a true republican, in the constitutional sense, he could have prevented
this mess. Instead, he intensified his divisive rhetoric because he wanted to
show the world that he would “conquer” Gonaives by repeatedly hinting to the
masses that they would be going to Gonaives on the 1st of January. …He deployed
the South African soldiers for a search and seizure mission three days prior to
the 1st, which repulsed the population; and then, CIMO fired tear gas in Nazon
(P-au-P) and disrupted a peaceful march.  By the 1st of January 2004, it was
clear that a major confrontation would take place. Again, the police assaults
on Gonaives between the 3rd and the 5th of January put the nails on the
coffin.


By running an egotistical government that is pivoted on the “I” and the “I” is
the axis of power, lawfulness cannot exist. Any power that revolves around an
egotistical “I” must be despotic and violent.


The Scenario for the coming weeks:


As the “Democratic Platform” backs away in order to rethink its political
strategy amidst the armed revolt by former Lavalas, Army officers and FRAPH
members, the government while pushing the police along side the chimeres to
re-take control of the provinces, it will offer an indirect olive branch to the
Platform.  If the Platform takes it, they would lose all “credibility” and the
student movement will detach itself from it and aligns itself with the
so-called “Mouvman Popilč.”  However, if the Platform Democratic remains
steadfast on its position that Aristide must resign and the armed revolt picks
up momentum by toppling more major cities then the Lavalas Governement would:

A-    Increase its violence in order to create fear

B-    Called on CARICOM to help squash the rebellion

C-    Plausible, Aristide would pack up once he sees Cap-Haitian, Jeremie,
Saint-Marc

      and Jacmel capitulated.


In the case of A or, and, B the Aristide government would simply be hacking its
own head, because those two scenarios would fuel the anger of the population
and the result would worse than the 1986 Dechoukaj.  …And if the government
succeeds in taking towns that the rebels captures or would capture; but not
squashing the movement, than the armed conflict would spiral out of control and
resulting in a violent bi-polar conflict that could implode into a civil war.


If a civil war were to transpire, then we would be experiencing a military and
bureaucratic occupation from the United States; this time it would be worse
than in 1915.


If Aristide stays on to “fight” for his symbolic power and if the people win by
remaining resilient and determined, then if he is captured, they would hack him
to death. Remember the 1910s massacres!


Again, as I have written in previous posts, Aristide is to blame for his
inaptitude at governance and his stubborn and egotistical character that
requires people around him to be subservient.  If he had respected the
constitution and be presidential to the Nation and for the Nation than, the
2000 electoral fiasco would not have happened. Of course, if he hadn’t
negotiated under the Preval Administration with the then Convergence and
stalling OAS for three years, then we wouldn’t have been where we are.


For those of you who are skeptics and are emotionally attached to Lavalas
(Aristide), ask yourselves these basic questions: Why is it that under Preval,
the country was more stable and orderly? Why is it that former FRAPH members or
military officers were not trying to topple the Preval regime? Why is it that
the international community was receptive of his government?


 I hope that Aristide will remember at least those words that he used to say
between November 1991 to October of 1995: “Pito m’ echwe san Pčp la, ke m’
echwe avčk pčp la (I’ll rather fail without the people, instead of failing with
the people).”


Titid, ou echwe… Please, spare us another blood bath.


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