18614: (Hermantin)Miami-Herald-Anti-Aristide groups split threat to future (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: leonie hermantin <lhermantin@hotmail.com>

Anti-Aristide groups split threat to future

By Thomas Monnay
Staff Writer
Posted February 14 2004

The factions entangled in Haiti's political quagmire agree on one thing:
President Jean-Bertrand Aristide must step down. But their differences and
the lack of a united front could jeopardize the country's democratic
political future if Aristide's government collapses.

On the political side, the Democratic Platform, a coalition of coalitions,
has mobilized Haitians into street protests and threatened to drive Aristide
out of power. They cite corruption and lack of economic progress in Haiti
during his administration as their reasons.


Their cause is supported by civic groups throughout Haiti and the United
States, including the Haiti-Democracy Project, a U.S.-based nonprofit
organization advocating democratic changes in Haiti.

At the same time, armed gangs that once backed Aristide's Fanmi Lavalas
party and former soldiers who lost their jobs after Aristide dismantled the
Haitian army are battling to overthrow his regime.

Leaders of the Democratic Platform have said they want to achieve their goal
through nonviolence. They have strongly denied accusations by the Aristide
government that they are supporting the armed struggle.

The popular movement is made up of the Democratic Convergence, a coalition
of small political parties, and the Group of 184, named for the number of
organizations it initially comprised.

The Democratic Convergence was born after the May 2000 legislative
elections, in which Aristide's party won 26 of 27 senate seats. The results
in eight of those seats were disputed by the opposition, and found to have
irregularities by international observers, including the Organization of
American States. In protest, the group boycotted the November 2000
presidential election. Efforts to rectify those elections have been futile.

Among the Convergence leaders are Evans Paul, a former Aristide supporter
and leader of the Convention for Democratic Unity, and Hubert de Ronceray, a
sociologist and former presidential candidate who was exiled in 1990 by a
military government.

The Group of 184 is an umbrella of civic and social groups, syndicates,
unions and business associations, professionals, students, laborers, women,
religious and peasant groups, among others, working for democratic and
social reform. By teaming with the Democratic Convergence, the group has
gained momentum with mass protests paralyzing traffic in Port-au-Prince and
leaving the government scrambling to preserve order.

According to the Haitian government, the Democratic Platform relies heavily
on financial and technical support from the National Endowment for Democracy
and the International Republican Institute, the international arm of the
Republican Party.

In contrast to the political struggle, armed groups are spreading terror
throughout Haiti, killing police officers, government officials and Aristide
supporters.

The best-known armed faction is the Artibonite Resistance Front, which
operates in the northwestern corner of the country. Formerly the Cannibal
Army, its leaders said they were initially armed by Aristide to crush
government opponents. The front was formed last year after the murder of
Cannibal's leader, Amiot Metayer.

The front has claimed responsibility for the armed revolt and occupation of
Gonaives and violence in St. Marc and Cap-Haitian. Lesser known groups are
also fighting in other parts of Haiti.

Last year, in the Central Plateau region near the border with the Dominican
Republic, armed men believed to be former Haitian army members killed police
officers and a government delegation.

The key concern in this political crisis is whether those armed groups would
want to be part of a new government if Aristide steps down.

"I don't know their political motivation," Manigat said. "They say they want
to overthrow Aristide, but for what reason? Nobody knows what their interest
is."

But not all political groups opposed to Aristide are working together.
Manigat's party, the Rally of Progressive and National Democrats of Haiti,
is not a member of the Democratic Convergence because they differ on
political strategies, he said.

So who would assume Haiti's control if Aristide were overthrown?

Haiti no longer has an army, which traditionally carried out coups and took
control of political institutions.

Under Haiti's constitution, one of the country's supreme court justices
would take the helm until a stable government is installed.

But the Democratic Platform believes it could choose a prime minister to
lead a provisional government that would hold general elections within two
years.

Manigat told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel that he has been contacted by
the Platform to lead a new government for one year. But he said he would
need three years to set up democratic infrastructure and wants to choose
honest and competent people for his government. He said would not run for
president in future elections.

Other names being floated in South Florida and Washington to head a new
government include former Prime Minister Smarck Michel, who resigned during
Aristide's presidency.

In the meantime, some Haitian political analysts and supporters of the
democratic opposition understand changes won't happen overnight.

Thomas Monnay can be reached at tmonnay@sun-sentinel.com or 954-385-7924.
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Copyright © 2004, South Florida Sun-Sentinel

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