18819: (Chamberlain) US-Aristide (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Greg Chamberlain <GregChamberlain@compuserve.com>

   By SONYA ROSS

   WASHINGTON, Feb 19 (AP) -- The United States helped Jean-Bertrand
Aristide claim his place as president of Haiti a decade ago. Now, American
officials, disillusioned with his rule, are debating internally whether
they should help show Aristide the door.
   Publicly, the United States resists the notion of forcibly removing
Aristide. Privately, the Bush administration is exploring options for
helping foster a peaceful switch of leaders in Haiti without undercutting
democratic rule.
   Aristide upped the ante Wednesday by turning aside one U.S. suggestion:
early elections that could appease his political opponents. He wants to
serve until his five-year term expires in February 2006.
   The United States has not clearly said it will refuse to recognize a
successor to Aristide who takes over through coup or ouster, experts point
out. Days ago, Secretary of State Colin Powell said a change in leadership
in Haiti is not an option. But he also said the United States is not
inclined to intervene to help Aristide maintain a grip on power.
   One problem, many American officials say, is that there are few credible
alternatives to Aristide in Haiti.
   "It is no secret to say the Bush administration has no love for
Aristide," said University of Virginia professor Robert Fatton Jr., an
expert on Haiti. "And that, to some extent, really supported the growth of
the opposition in Haiti. So what is the firm stand of the U.S. policy? Is
it one that just looks at the situation deteriorate and hopes the
opposition will take over?"
   Complicating Aristide's situation is the fact that many U.S. supporters
who bolstered him in 1994 are rather circumspect about his plight now. Even
the Rev. Jesse Jackson, a driving force on Aristide's behalf in 1994,
focused his appeals to the Bush administration on preserving democracy
itself in Haiti, just as it has sought to do in Afghanistan and Iraq.
   Aristide "was elected. The opposition has refused to come to the table,"
Jackson said Wednesday. "Our government should be on the side of a
democracy."
   There also has been no collective pressure exerted by the Congressional
Black Caucus, which leaned heavily on then-President Clinton to send troops
to back up Aristide a decade ago.
   Individual members, such as Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., have urged
Powell to continue to support Aristide's government because it is
democratic. Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Calif., pigeonholed Powell about the Haiti
issue on Capitol Hill last week, seeking a clarification of Bush
administration policy.
   "There is a squeamishness among people who otherwise would be speaking
out right now," said Bill Fletcher, director of TransAfrica Forum, a
leading U.S. lobby for Haiti.
   In 1994, he said, Aristide was up against coup leaders who were "pure
and unadulterated evil."
   But since then, Aristide has had stilted relations with allies and has
alienated much of his base amid charges of massive corruption.
   The crisis has been brewing since Aristide's party swept flawed
legislative elections in 2000. Donors froze millions in international aid
at that point.
   "There are criticisms to be made of President Aristide," Fletcher said.
"But the issue in Haiti is not whether someone is pro or con on the
question of Aristide. The issue is whether or not someone is in support of
democracy, whether they are in favor of illegal means of political change
in a country that is following a democratic path."
   Another factor that hurts Aristide, according to administration
officials, is his use of police and militants to terrorize political
opponents. U.S. officials are concerned that some of the very elements
involved in the military overthrow that first bounced Aristide are now
hiding out within his machinery -- and that of the opposition -- waiting
for opportunity.
   That in itself makes it difficult to consider leaving Aristide in power,
said James Morel, director of the Washington-based Haiti Democracy Project.
   "He is ... a traditional Haitian president trying to keep a monopoly of
power," Morel said. "When you're in that mode, you can't keep agreements
for providing domestic opposition and the like."
   The administration, Morel said, "should be greasing the skids for
Aristide. They should be discussing with him where he could go. At the same
time, they should throw the support to the democratic (movement). If you
don't do that, it's going to be the people with guns, whether inside the
palace or outside the palace, who will prevail."