18861: (Chamberlain) Haitian Migration (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Greg Chamberlain <GregChamberlain@compuserve.com>

   By ADRIAN SAINZ

   MIAMI, Feb 19 (AP) -- Many Haitian-Americans fear the bloodletting in
their homeland will lead to another exodus of refugees setting out for
Florida in dangerously flimsy boats.
   "People are trying to find a different way to survive. Right now, all I
hear about over there is death, death, death. It hurts," said a tearful
Patricia Alexis, a 27-year-old nursing student who lives in Miami's Little
Haiti section and speaks daily with her mother back in Haiti. "Obviously we
have a lot of problems if we're going to have people getting in boats,
risking their lives."
   U.S. officials said there are no signs of any large-scale boat building
along Haiti's coast, which is usually a harbinger of a mass migration. But
the State Department, the Coast Guard and the Homeland Security Department
said contingency plans are in place to deal with an exodus.
   During Haiti's military dictatorship between 1991 and 1994, more than
65,000 Haitians were intercepted at sea by the Coast Guard, and most were
sent back home, including many who were initially taken to the U.S. naval
base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Activists estimate hundreds of refugees died
at sea in 1994 alone, though there are no reliable official figures.
   The flow of refugees eased after the United States sent 20,000 troops to
Haiti in 1994 and restored President Jean-Bertrande Aristide to power.
   Fears of another exodus are mounting as rebels battle Aristide
supporters in a bloody, two-week-old uprising in the Caribbean nation some
650 miles from Miami.
   "People here are constantly worried. They don't sleep, they don't eat.
Peoples' blood pressure is getting higher every day," said Lucie Tondreau,
a community activist in South Florida, which has the largest concentration
of Haitians outside Haiti, with estimates ranging from 230,000 to 400,000.
   Haitian-American activists want the United States to set aside its
policy of sending back refugees stopped at sea and to provide a safe haven
for any Haitians who decide to flee. But the State Department has given no
indication it is willing to suspend its policy.
   On Thursday, Rep. Kendrick Meek, a Democrat who represents a large part
of Miami's Haitians, urged them to persuade their relatives in Haiti not to
flee by boat because of the danger.
   "The Florida delegation is united on this," Meek said. "We've lived
through this before."
   Amid calls for U.S. military intervention to prevent further chaos and
head off an exodus, the Pentagon said Thursday it is sending a military
team of three to four experts to assess the situation in Haiti. Earlier
this week, Secretary of State Colin Powell said the United States was
reluctant to send military personnel to help resolve the uprising.
   Florida Sens. Bill Nelson and Bob Graham, both Democrats, have
recommended an international police force be sent to help restore order.
Nelson criticized the Bush administration for taking "only meager steps to
assist the people of Haiti."
   Coast Guard spokesman Lt. Tony Russell said there has been no increase
in Haitians setting sail for the United States. He said the Coast Guard has
not stepped up patrols beyond its regular presence.
   Haiti expert Robert Fatton Jr. said it is a safe bet that a mass
migration will take place if the capital, Port-au-Prince, is attacked by
rebels.
   "If there is chaos, it will be very difficult politically for the Bush
administration to return them to Haiti," said Fatton, a professor of
politics at the University of Virginia.
   Sending them to Guantanamo Bay would "contain the problem from becoming
a political hot potato for the Bush administration and for South Florida"
during an election year, he said.
   Some observers warned that the exodus this time could be bigger than the
poverty-driven migration in the 1990s, in part because of the large number
of people who might fear retaliation from either Aristide's backers or the
rebels.
   "Today it's different because now you have the army and the drug dealers
and part of the bourgeoisie also involved," Tondreau said. "Low-class
people, the middle class -- everybody is going to leave."