19010: Pierre Jean: So it had to come to this ... (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Pierre Jean <pierrejean2004@yahoo.com>

It is Sunday night, February 22, 2004, Year 200 of our
Independence. I am watching the 2004 "Carnaval de la
Renaissance" on TV and wondering if I am not living a
nightmare.

While the Haitian administration now effectively
controls only 4 department out of 9 (Ouest, Sud,
Sud-Est, and Grande Anse), President Aristide is
asking the citizens of the Republic of Port-au-Prince
to have a good time. Or as he said so cryptically: "go
out and party in groups of three ... one dances, one
watches out, and one sleeps." It is the same President
who has been telling the international press that
reinforcements are being sent to re-take Cap-Haitien
from the rebels. An obvious lie to safe face, when in
fact policemen have been fleeing the city by any means
possible (including hijacking an aircraft.) Remember
those reinforcements that were supposed to be sent to
Gonaives? I guess they are still on the way.

Frankly, the situation for the President looks bleak.
We almost have to wonder whether he is mentally sane
to pretend that everything is hunky-dory and that this
is just another day at the office. The "opposition
pacifique" is not in a much better situation as they
stand to inherit the rebel problem, if they succeed in
their aim to get Aristide to resign.

With an armed insurgency that does not seem to
encounter much resistance from the security forces,
and certainly not from the pro-Aristide OPs, one must
wonder whether this shouldn't be the time to declare a
state of emergency. Nahoum Marcellus, the "poto mitan"
of Lavalas in Okap, is on the run. His radio station
has been burned down in retribution for his ordering
the complete destruction of that city's Radio Vision
2000 station. Another pro-Lavalas radio station is now
a thing of the past. Jose Ulysse's gas station is now
reduced to a pile of rubbles, and I am sure the
dechoukaj is continuing as I write this.

In light of that momentous event, in my opinion, the
decision to allow the Carnaval festivities to continue
in Port-au-Prince is sheer folly. Not only is this not
the appropriate time to be reveling, it is also a
dangerous military situation for the government. From
a pure tactical standpoint, Aristide's safety advisers
should not provide the rebels with an opportunity to
get that close to the National Palace given the size
of the crowds. That is beyond stupidity. The rebels
are better armed, better trained and more motivated
than the CIMOs, the USGPN, and definitely the regular
police force. And I am sure that they know how to use
those grenade launchers they exhibited on TV, no doubt
a gift from their foreign patrons (Dominicans?
Americans? Drug lords? Who knows?)

Then I get a call from a friend in New York who tells
me that Port-au-Prince Lavalassiens are giving
interviews on the radio there by phone. They are
basically saying that everything is under control.
Dismy Cesar, being interviewed by Ricot Dupuy,
acknowledges very matter-of-factly that the government
no longer controls Cap-Haitien, but that it is not a
big deal. Not a big deal? Hello?

But then I remember that this is Haiti and that
anything can happen. Garcia Marquez's concept of
"réalité merveilleuse" couldn't have found a better
home than Haiti today.

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