19057: Sylvain: Prognosis (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: patrick sylvain <sylvaipa@hotmail.com>


Regardless of the millions of dollars spent on lobbyists, lawyers and chimères,
the Aristide government is through. Given the speed through which the country
is falling, mind you, with little fights against the rebels, Aristide cannot
last past the month of March. In my prognosis, March 16 is a death or flee date
for Aristide.  The opposition will not accept the Prime ministerial post
because they know they’ll be dealing with the Aristide card; beside, if
Aristide was as popular as he claims, there would have been greater resistance
in the north and elsewhere in the country.  And if Washington does not pull
Aristide out before the 3rd of March, then we may see a kind of desperate
attempt by Lavalas to show force as well as trying to eliminate some of its
political enemies. As Father Gerard Jean-Juste claimed “there will be a
blood-bath in Port-au-Prince.”

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Now, what is peculiar to me and to a lot Haitian intellectuals I’ve
communicated with, is the murky role of the US in our latest saga. If I’m not
mistaken, during the height of the Muhammed/Malveaux arrest, the Bush
administration had sent over 10,000 M-16 (Nov.2002) to the Dominican Republic
in order to increase border security and the US’s National Security.   It seems
that while the US is fed up with Aristide, it does not fully trust “the current
political movement” because it cannot completely control it and at the same the
US does not want to appear too anti-Aristide and be blamed for another
international fiasco.  So, what is the next best for the US? The Army.



The return of certain FRAPH members as well as army officials as for aim to
create a sense of lost security while creating a psychological panic on the
minds of Haitians who will be saying: “what if the DR were to invade Haiti?”
“If so few rebels took over so many towns in such a lightning speed what about
the Dominicans?”  Fear! Fear! And Fear in order to fulfill a long-term
objective: the return of a larger and more professional Haitian military.



What the US has to gain:

1-     Better control over the Columbian drug transshipment.

2-     Institutional stability through its surrogate (the military).

3-     Establishing viable offshore assembly line industries while creating
enough jobs to systematically decrease the number of Haitian boat people.

4-     Establishing and maintaining a 10,000plus military corps alongside the
police force (5,000) as a check and balance on the executive and the “volatile
Haitians.”

5-     Investment in the tourist industry by its corporations for its
sun-craved citizens and creating more jobs for the “natives”  (win-win
situation --- Democracy on the beach).



In the final analysis, Aristide is already passé and the military, while it is
still constitutionally legal, is coming physically back under a cleverer Uncle
Sam.  It is also apparent that our 1986 transition to democracy and stability
has reached its apex, now it is time for Haitians to built viable political
parties with long term visions and social Foundations.  And it is also time for
us to stop scrapping the earth for livelihood and for the “bourgeoisie” to be
become truly national in vision and in scope. Adieu Dictatorship and long live
the people!




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