19059: (Chamberlain) US-Haiti (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Greg Chamberlain <GregChamberlain@compuserve.com>

   By GEORGE GEDDA

   WASHINGTON, Feb 23 (AP) -- Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide may
have miscalculated when he chose not to aggressively pursue a peace deal
with his opponents two weeks ago, U.S. officials said Monday as the Haitian
leader's position grew increasingly perilous.
   In the interim, forces opposed to Aristide have steadily strengthened
their position and now have less incentive to negotiate than they did
earlier this month, the officials said.
   U.S. officials were awaiting word from opposition groups on a peace
proposal set forth on Saturday by the United States and European, Latin
American and Caribbean countries. Aristide accepted the proposal. But
opposition leaders have indicated that no agreement was possible without
the president's resignation.
   The administration nevertheless remained hopeful.
   "We are looking to the opposition to give us a response on their
participation in this plan," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher
said.
   He said the outside mediators are drafting a statement that would commit
them to monitoring compliance with an agreement and serving as guarantors.
Both sides should understand, Boucher said, that "we will be involved every
step of the way."
   The proposal presented on Saturday would build on a plan that was drawn
up by the 15-nation Caribbean Community at the end of January.
   Aristide accepted the plan but the administration says he has done
little to carry out its terms. Boucher noted that the plan involves changes
in key government personnel, including the appointment of a prime minister.
   The administration is showing growing concern over the situation in the
troubled country. On Saturday, the State Department ordered the departure
of nonessential embassy personnel and of family members.
   On Monday, 50 U.S. Marines with anti-terrorism training were dispatched
to Port-au-Prince to help protect U.S. facilities. The Department of
Homeland Security halted on Monday the deportation of undocumented Haitians
back to Haiti because of the unstable situation there.
   The outlook for Aristide has looked bleaker in recent days, officials
said, with the takeover of the country's No. 2 city, Cap-Hatien, by rebels
on Sunday and reports of frightened cabinet members looking for places to
hide.
   However, U.S. officials said the armed rebel groups would face far more
resistance if they attempt to seize Port-au-Prince. They note that
Cap-Hatien was taken virtually without a fight.
   Sen. Mike DeWine, R-Ohio, who has followed Haiti closely over the years,
warned that disaster may lie ahead unless the peace plan is implemented.
   "It is certainly not out of the realm of possibility that there will be
a bloodbath in Port-au-Prince," DeWine said in a speech on the Senate
floor.