19154: Esser: Aristide's fate must not be left to the thugs and cynics (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: D. Esser torx@joimail.com

The Globe and Mail
http://www.globeandmail.com

Aristide's fate must not be left to the thugs and cynics

By PAUL KNOX
Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2004

Port-au-Prince — The choice for Canada and other nations trying to
help Haitians find a way out of their bitter and seemingly endless
conflict is beginning to simplify. We can send a multinational police
or military force to keep order until Haiti can hold elections. Or we
can toss all that high-minded talk about respect for democracy in the
Americas out the window, and expect the already alarming death toll
here to keep climbing.

Officially, President Jean-Bertrand Aristide is asking only for
"trainers" or "advisers" to the Haitian National Police. But few here
believe that that under-powered, under-motivated force can be beefed
up quickly enough to recover territory from the armed insurgents who
now control much of northern Haiti, and who say they plan to attack
Port-au-Prince in the next few days. Without outside help, it looks
increasingly unlikely that Mr. Aristide will remain in office for the
two years left in his five-year term.

To be effective, a multinational force would have to be able to stare
down not only the rebels, but also the militant government and
opposition supporters who clash repeatedly in the streets of
Port-au-Prince. The force would certainly have to number in the
hundreds, if not the low thousands. The core might be a
gendarme-style police with special weapons and training, but it could
include a military-combat element as well.

Mr. Aristide's position would be greatly bolstered by the presence of
such a force. Many would say he hasn't earned it. Although he has
been, at times, a symbol of hope and political enfranchisement for
millions of poor Haitians, he has delivered little in the way of
social and economic reform or institution-building. He has failed to
curb violence among his own supporters, alienated influential backers
and shown remarkably little skill at alliance-building. The election
in 2000 that brought him to a second term as President was hardly a
thorough sounding of the popular will.

Yet foreign governments have recognized Mr. Aristide for three years
as Haiti's legitimate President. It would be inconsistent, to say the
least, if they were to pull the plug on him now. It would also be
wrong. Whatever Mr. Aristide's failings, the street thugs and
disgruntled ex-army conspirators who have mounted the rebellion in
the north cannot be allowed to depose him by force.

No outcome to Haiti's crisis is acceptable if it heaps rewards on the
political and civic leaders opposed to Mr. Aristide. They have had
the chance to make a clean break with the armed rebels, and have
rejected it. By refusing to participate in a political solution to
the crisis unless Mr. Aristide resigns, they are, in effect, standing
aside and waiting for the insurgents to topple him. At that point, of
course, the "peaceful" oppositionists would move into government —
having paid neither the political nor the military price.

The cynicism of their approach was evident on Monday as they spoke to
reporters about the political power-sharing plan they now have
effectively rejected. Hans Tippenhauer, a member of a prominent
business family in the capital, claimed the rebels are being welcomed
in the north as "freedom fighters" by the local population. He
described them as a "very tiny part of the movement against
Aristide." Then André Apaid, another prominent opposition leader,
jumped in to do a little damage control. "We remain a non-violent and
peaceful movement," he said.

It would send a terrible signal to allow such machinations to
succeed. The principle of intervention to stop attempted coups d'état
is now well established in the Western Hemisphere. To permit a putsch
here would be to say, in effect, that there are two classes of
countries in the Americas: the ones we care about and the ones we
don't. If that's the case, in which category would impoverished,
resource-starved Haiti belong?

The backdrop to all this is a long and terrible history of
dictatorship and repression, in a country run by a combination of
foreign interests and a tiny local elite. It was not until Mr.
Aristide's first election in 1990 that Haitians experienced true
freedom of political expression. "Of course Aristide is not a good
President," Patrick Elie, a long-time associate of the President,
told me the other day. "But we are going to vote him out of power.
We. We. It's that we thing, rather than the chosen few. The educated
and propertied minority are not going to choose the best for this
country."

An internationally enforced breathing space for Haiti would require a
heavy price: at the very least, close monitoring and reporting to
ensure respect for human rights, particularly those of Mr. Aristide's
opponents. Haitians must be able to vote in free and credible
elections next year, as Mr. Aristide's mandate nears its end.
International supervision will be necessary, along with a robust
international security force. Bring 'em on, and the sooner the better.

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