19453: Esser: A race against time (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: D. E s s e r <torx@joimail.com>

Jamaica Observer
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com

Columns
A race against time

THE WEEK IN EUROPE David Jessop
Sunday, February 29, 2004

As this is being written, France, Canada and other nations including
the United States are trying to engineer the departure of the Haitian
President, Jean Bertrand Aristide, and insert a multinational United
Nations-backed peacekeeping force into the republic.

Their objective is to achieve this before the less than coherent
gangs of dubiously financed and led young men offering support to the
Opposition, reach the capital. The hope of these nations is that an
intervention will enable the country to prepare for fresh elections
in which Opposition parties committed to democracy can eventually
come to power. It is a delicate balancing act that requires ensuring
any intervention takes place after the elected head of government
departs and before those who would bring chaos or terror can take
control of the capital.

The position taken by France and others is different to that of the
English-speaking Caribbean. Caricom had been committed to finding a
solution that avoids what might be described as regime change in
Haiti. For this reason, Caricom had supported solutions that
encouraged power sharing or other strictly constitutional approaches
of the kind that might apply in any of the democracies of the
Anglophone Caribbean, arguing that what was happening in Haiti was an
internal matter.

On February 26, speaking at the United Nations for Caricom, the
Jamaican foreign minister, K D Knight, called for the Security
Council to immediately authorise a multinational force to end the
violence and restore law and order. Despite this, key members,
including France and the US, which had been working with Caricom,
made clear they wanted a political settlement before deploying an
international force.

Arguing against waiting for a political solution, Mr Knight said that
rebel forces that had created anarchy in much of the country were
likely to reach the capital, Port-au-Prince, soon, and immediate
action was needed. He suggested also that the refugee crisis that
would result made the issue one for the international community to
resolve rapidly. Only an immediate response, he argued, would
safeguard democracy and prevent a humanitarian disaster.

Previously, a plan supported by Caricom called for President Aristide
to remain in office with diminished powers and share the Government
with his political rivals. However, this had been rejected by the
Haitian Opposition, elements of which see Caricom's relationship with
the republic as an interference in the internal affairs of the
country. This is a view sharply held by those who believe that
President Aristide came to power illegitimately and that the US and
groups in the US Congress subsequently foisted the relationship with
Caricom on President Aristide against the national interest of the
Haitian people.

Supporting the Caribbean position in all of this has been the Rio
Group of nations headed by Brazil, on the grounds that it is
necessary to support the constitutionally-elected president of Haiti.
What happens next seems increasingly likely to depend on discussions
underway in Paris and at the United Nations aimed at trying to broker
an alternative solution to that suggested by Caricom.

If France, and, it seems, the US have their way, it would most
probably result in President Aristide leaving and a civil
multinational peace force consisting of troops and paramilitary
police being inserted to restore civil order. Thereafter, there would
be a transitional government of national unity presided over by a
prime minister who would call elections by the summer. The plan also
calls for the provision of humanitarian aid and some form of
international long-term commitment to the economic and social
reconstruction of the country. The UN Security Council, it seems,
would be asked to agree to all such arrangements.

As this is being written, it is clear that elements of this strategy
are high-risk. The rebels continue to advance towards Port-au-Prince.
For the French plans to succeed, President Aristide must leave and a
government of national unity be put in place before the Haitian
capital is taken. It is a race against time. Indeed it may still be
that if the rebels cannot be restrained by the Opposition parties,
then France and others may find themselves pre-emptively having to
intervene militarily from bases in and around the region.
The US presidential race, the impact of economic refugees on South
Florida, the poor state of Franco/US relations, the future role of
the UN, the geo-politics of the Americas and the future stability of
the Dominican Republic are all factors now in play in finding a
political solution in Haiti. Which is to say nothing of the role
being played by the Haitian Opposition or those from the Haitian
military with unsavoury backgrounds who only recently crossed the
border from the Dominican Republic.

In a matter of days it seems, there will be a change of government in
Haiti and the country will, as has been the case many times before,
set off in yet another direction. Irrespective of this, the chance of
achieving a lasting, stable democratic culture in a country so
impoverished seems slim.

The events of the past week may raise questions about the ability of
the Caribbean to deliver practical solutions to regional crises. This
is unfair. Trying to deliver solutions for Haiti when others outside
the region have broader political objectives says more about the way
the world now is than points to any failure on the part of the
Caribbean. Independence of thought, no matter how morally correct,
cannot equate to independence of action if countries are relatively
small and there are bigger forces at play.

David Jessop is the director of the Caribbean Council and can be
contacted at david.jessop@caribbean-council.org
.