21706: Esser: Haiti Update X: The Six Month Plan (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: D. Esser torx@joimail.com

Africana
http://www.africana.com

May 5, 2004

Haiti Update X: The Six Month Plan
By Avi Steinberg

Once progress is declared, the US will forget about Haiti and the
country will fall into the hands of the criminals who are now poised
to take over.


The months leading up to the 2004 US Presidential election are a
dangerous period for the world. Bush's war in Iraq might be a big
campaign issue all over the US, but Haiti is a big issue in a vital
state, Florida. For that reason alone, Haiti will remain a focus
through November and not much longer. Perhaps it's a coincidence that
the UN "peace-keeping" force, which begins its patrols on June 1, has
been given a six-month mission — i.e., through November.

Elections without social and economic reform are a self-serving farce
and far from "progress." Even if that is a coincidence, it is a very
convenient one indeed for the Bush administration. Either way, there
can be no doubt that the US is woefully neglecting its commitments.
UN special envoy Reginald Dumas has recently said that a sustained
commitment of at least 20 years would be necessary in order to bring
peace and prosperity to Haiti. Kofi Annan requested two years; the US
and the Security Council have approved a paltry six months.

The US defended the decision for a short mission by saying that it
needed to "monitor progress and watch costs," which is another way of
saying that it considers Haiti a very low priority. Costs, of course,
are always too high, especially for the impatient and the unwise.
"Progress," on the other hand, will be determined by a number of
superficial actions like a commitment to new elections — these
actions that will be implemented quickly and under the watchful eyes
of foreign soldiers so that the US can declare "progress" and depart.

Rushing to elections, which is only one of a number of reformist
measures does not address the core problems afflicting Haiti. As
we've seen, faulty elections do not resolve conflicts, they enflame
them. The most recent revolt in Haiti was sparked in part by
bitterness caused by alleged electoral abuse by Aristide. This time
around, his Lavalas party — which still commands popular loyalty —
will likely be cut out of the ruling equation. An election makes
little difference in a country in which power is gained and held by
the men with the best weapons. In Haiti, it's one rifle=one vote.
Regardless of the corruption of Aristide, the armed rebellion that
toppled him was hardly a model of electoral politics. In this
context, elections without social and economic reform are a
self-serving farce and far from "progress."

Perhaps Bush will trumpet this false progress days before the
election. But once progress is declared, the US will forget about
Haiti and the country will fall into the hands of the criminals who
are now poised to take over. Poverty, despair and violence will
continue and, at some point, escalate once more. Haiti's interim
leader, Prime Minister Gerard Latortue, knows that his days in the
limelight are numbered and he intends to make the most of it. As the
UN approved its short mission and the US prepared to leave, Latortue
set off to the US to request aid and to garner support for the Haiti
Economic Recovery Opportunity (HERO) act, a trade bill that promises
to bring hundreds of manufacturing jobs to Haiti.

This is a critical period for Latortue and his government. Latortue
wants to remind the U.S that military disengagement in Haiti doesn't
mean that the US has disengaged from Haiti. Help comes in a variety
of forms, most notably, money, jobs, and continued political backing.
Latortue knows that in this election half-year, US politicians might
listen to him. He's even meeting with the Congressional Black Caucus,
which has a number of outspoken Aristide supporters. Latortue has
lived in the US, in south Florida, and he understands the political
seasons. He knows he has a window of opportunity that will shut
quickly and decisively come November.

Latortue's US support is about the only power card he is able to play
and he is wisely, if fruitlessly, trying to strengthen his hand. If
he is able to get support from the Caribbean Community (Caricom),
which has still refused to recognize Haiti's new government, all the
better. Although its members are caught between immense US pressure
and local pressures, Caricom can't hold out indefinitely.

With or without Caricom's support, as long as Latortue has US
attention and US/UN military might behind him, he can ignore the
armed warlords who control much of Haiti and who outgun his forces.
With US/UN support, the rebels must behave and let Latortue play
Prime Minister. All of this will change when the US stops paying
attention and the UN pulls out its forces. Latortue is trying to
shore up US support now for use later, when he becomes exposed for
what he truly is: a very weak and vulnerable unelected leader with no
army and, perhaps, no police force. Even if a government-sponsored
army or police force forms, the ranks will be filled with men loyal
to rebel leaders like Guy Philippe and other assorted criminals.
There's a reason why Aristide disbanded the army — they are a threat
to civilian government. And a weak police force is, as the Aristide
years have proven, disastrous.

By giving Haiti six months instead of a serious commitment, the world
and the US have made their intentions very clear. Without US support,
Latortue will have little choice but to acknowledge the authority
that the armed militiamen already hold — at that point, Latortue will
be nothing more than a political face on a criminal body politic. The
season of disengagement has officially begun even before it has
started. Perhaps President Kerry will begin to re-examine US policy
on Haiti after the election.


About the Author
Avi Steinberg is a freelance writer living in Boston. After studying
American foreign policy at Harvard, he received a fellowship in
2002-3 to live in Jerusalem and study international conflict. He is
on staff at Transition Magazine
.