22280: Esser: Out in the Cold (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: D. Esser torx@joimail.com

Trinidad & Tobago Express
http://www.trinidadexpress.com

June 6th 2004

OUT IN THE COLD
By RAOUL PANTIN


Former Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, now ensconced in
South Africa, had better get accustomed to cooling his heels.

Never mind he was greeted on arrival in South Africa with all the
pomp and ceremony due a visiting Head of State; never mind Mr
Aristide's insistence that he is the de facto, if not the de jure,
President of Haiti; never mind the South African government's
publicly declared support for Mr Aristide as the legitimate President
of Haiti.

And never mind Caricom's initially hostile response to the sudden,
and still inexplicable, departure of Mr Aristide from Haiti.

Caricom demanded an enquiry into Mr Aristide's fall from grace but
obviously nobody (especially including the United States) is taking
that seriously.

In fact, both the new government of Haiti and its United Nations
sponsors have been pressing ahead with everyday business without even
the slightest consideration of Mr Aristide's pique.

An enquiry such as the one called for by Caricom would probably best
be undertaken by the United Nations; but there has been no indication
at all of UN support for such an enquiry. Nor is evident that Caricom
has been pressing too hard.

Frosty relations between the United States Department of State and
Caricom since the Aristide debacle has led to the cancellation of a
couple conferences, including one on regional security.

But the US appears to have shrugged off the Caricom concern while
ensuring that it gets maximum United Nations support for the new
government in Haiti and plans to restore some semblance of order in
the country.

Having made little or no headway since Mr Aristide's fall from grace,
it seems that Caricom leaders have been thinking twice about their
initial stance, even though they also had support from South Africa
and several other countries that have voiced their own misgivings
about the way in which Mr Aristide left office.

The man who was once deposed by the Haitian military and then
restored to office by American marines might still think it feasible
that his supporters in Haiti will continue to rally round him and
demand his return to office.

But that possibility grows more remote with every passing day.

Not even Mr Aristide's staunchest regional supporters appear to be
holding their breath until he is restored to office.

Last week, in fact, Prime Minister Patrick Manning more or less
confirmed Caricom backing down from its original stance by declaring
that on the issue of Haiti, Caricom is "moving on".

It makes a lot of practical sense, too. Mr Aristide's departure from
office is not only a fait accompli, the military presence in Haiti is
increasingly giving way to United Nations troops (last week Mr
Manning also disclosed that Trinidad and Tobago won't be sending
troops to Haiti but concentrating on providing aid).

What Mr Manning didn't say last week, or comment on, are clear
indications that the original Caricom stance on Haiti is being
waffled away. Barbados, for example, is reported to have indicated
that it will recognise the new Haiti government.

One shouldn't be surprised if shortly in fact the rest of Caricom
follows suit.

After all, if the United Nations has accepted the new status quo in
Port au Prince, then what's the point of Caricom continuing to fly
kite for Mr Aristide while turning its back on Haiti, once more in
its hour of need?

On humanitarian grounds alone, Caricom has to extend its hand to
Haiti rather than simply sit back and sulk or wait for the outcome of
an enquiry that nobody is taking seriously.

It seems likely in fact that Mr Aristide's best chance of returning
to power is to wait and fight the next general election, whenever
that's going to be scheduled for.

It's agreed that the new government in Port au Prince is an interim
one; elections will have to be organised and properly scheduled. And
Mr Aristide might yet continue to play a political role in Haiti when
that time comes around.

Whether he will in fact be allowed to be a candidate is left to be seen.

But the focus on Haiti right now, and especially in the wake of the
devastating floods that caused so much havoc in the past few weeks,
is to provide badly needed aid for an impoverished people, something
that the United Nations is busily orchestrating.

The military presence in Haiti is also likely to continue for some
time, albeit under UN auspices. The thugs who led the armed revolt
against Mr Aristide are not only very present but are now seeking to
become policemen, carrying arms.

The new Haitian government has been benign in its treatment of these
new-style tonton macoute. But it may yet rue the day-or discover, to
its chagrin, what other regional governments have found out to their
dismay-that treating thugs with kid gloves or trying to reinvent them
in the personage of "community leaders" is to play with fire.

Armed thugs are armed thugs, in out of uniform.

 From their point of view, they undoubtedly believe they are owed
something for leading the revolt that pushed Mr Aristide from office.
And to date, instead of ensuring that they play no role at all in the
future of Haiti, the government has obviously been trying to keep the
thugs happy.

It's a mistake that may well plant the seeds for future political
turmoil in Haiti.

If Mr Aristide's fall from power proved sudden, and led his regional
partners to call for an enquiry, also unanswered are questions about
how the thugs got themselves so heavily armed just before they
launched their revolt against the Haitian president.

Who, else, had an interest in Mr Aristide being removed from office?

Those are the kinds of questions that an enquiry of the sort
originally demanded by Caricom might have answered. But since that is
as likely as a blue moon, the least the new government in Haiti can
do is put a careful distance between itself and the gangsters
claiming to be national heroes.
.