24436: from anonymous re: short term predictions (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

Please post anonymously


Now that the UN has publicly committed to halting the
same police violence against Lavalas they have
here-to-fore enabled, the dynamic will shift once
again to massive protests in the streets. Once these
protests reach critical mass you will see hundreds of
thousands of Lavalas supporters throughout the country
take to the streets to demand Aristide's return and
condemn the legitimacy of the coup and the upcoming
elections. The floodgates will open akin to 1986.

Latortue will be the first casuality as the right and
ultra-right(read: Council of Sages and former
military)align to replace him with a right-nationalist
compromise candidate acceptable to the US (in talks
said to be currently underway the most likely to
assuume the PM post is Abraham).

The elections will be the second causualty with the
new government and the UN announcing a postponement.
This will ultimately lead to even greater polarization
and political realignment leaving the so-called
centrist elements that openly supported Latortue and
the current timetable for elections out in the cold.
As the so-called centrists begin to protest exclusion,
State repression will generalize beyond Lavalas
touching individuals and organizations who once felt
immune.

Either way, the UN will have to revert to allowing the
GOH to provoke violence from the base of Lavalas
supporters again to justify another wave of violent
oppression to forestall expected massive protests
demanding the return of Aristide. The cycle of
repression will continue until Haiti reaches a
breaking point forcing a compromise with Aristide and
Lavalas

Winners: Ray Joseph, Herard Abraham, Bernard Gousse,
Joel Deeb(NSC proxy), Guy Philippe (FRN), Ravix
Remincinthe, Lucie Orlando(RNC proxy)

Losers: Gerard Latortue, Youri Latortue, Andy Apaid
(Group 184), Charle Henry Baker, Leon Charles (current
PNH leadership), Jean-Claude Bajeux, NCHR