27246: Karshan (News): Getting to elections and beyond by Mark Schneider (Miami Herald) (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

  mkarshan@aol.com


  Miami Herald
  Posted on Mon, Jan. 16, 2006
  HAITI  Getting to elections and beyond  mschneider@crisisgroup.org  BY MARK
L.
SCHNEIDER
  The tragic death of the Brazilian commander of U.N. peacekeepers in Haiti
recently adds another somber chapter to a Haitian transition in deep trouble.
Too many are looking for someone to blame, when solutions are needed.
  Lt. Gen. Urano Teixeira da Matta Bacellar's reported suicide came the night
before the fourth postponed date for Haiti's national parliamentary and
presidential elections. The political, logistical, financial and security
impediments that required successive postponements of the elections originally
scheduled for Nov. 6 are still weeks away from resolution. Now Feb. 7 has been
announced as the new date for the first round of parliamentary and presidential
elections, and hopefully, it will stick.
  The frequent refusal of the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) and the
Transitional Government of Haiti to take the technical advice of the United
Nations stalled the electoral law, the electoral calendar, selection of
candidates, registration and financing of parties. The CEP barely acceded to a
competent director general in October. Constant delays now mean a $60 million
budget will not even cover local elections.
  The international community has to ask itself why it did not jettison the
once-reasonable goal of having ''local Haitian ownership'' of the process when
the sad inability of the Haitian provisional institutions to do the job became
apparent. The halfway measures dragged the process through multiple
postponements and eroded the credibility of nearly everyone involved.
  The Organization of American States succeeded in registering 3.5 million
voters and promised them a 21st century ID card, but it was late in getting
started and late in getting the cards produced and shipped to Haiti, partially
because the CEP delayed its decision on the number of voting centers.
  Security remains a major problem. The U.N. peacekeeping mission is blamed for
a lack of security in Port-au-Prince that no one can ignore. While it clearly
has not undertaken the disarmament and demobilization of ex-Haitian military
rebels or urban armed gangs, the latter responsible for a wave of kidnappings
and killings, the fault truly goes back to the U.S.-led multinational force
that did not finish the job after the departure of former President Aristide.
  Handed a half-secure Haiti, U.N. peacekeepers have been unable to shut down
the criminal gangs, drug traffickers and politically linked violent forces. The
vicious circle of extreme poverty, lack of jobs, governance or education has
produced too many young men desperate to do virtually anything -- including
kidnapping or killing -- to survive. The United Nations' limited success also
is in part because its military and police forces are few (9400, less than half
the number in Kosovo, with a Haitian population more than four times the size
of Kosovo) and in part because the mandate was restricted to ''support'' a
tainted Haitian National Police rather than being responsible themselves for
law and order.
  'Lavalas-lite' potential
  A few among the Haitian political elite now even want to delay elections
because they don't like the opinion polls that show former President René
Preval, now heading a Lavalas off-shoot, leading all other candidates. They had
formed a civic movement to oust Lavalas President Aristide after his
administration was linked to corruption and violence. Now they see the
possibility of a post-election ''Lavalas-lite'' government, and suddenly a
democratic election seems less important to them.
  Instead of another postponement, the U.N. Security Council should extend the
peacekeeping mandate that runs out on Feb. 15 for at least two years and give
the authority to its Special Representative in Haiti to take over international
conduct of the election's final stages if that is necessary. The United States,
Canada or France should provide additional helicopters to ease election
logistics and rapid reaction forces -- to reinforce the existing troops and
police and to add a stronger security cordon for the voting centers and
electoral network.
  Everyone in the international community should be planning for the period
after the elections by helping construct a platform of national dialogue and
reconciliation for the next Haitian parliament and president to govern
together. On issues like jobs, drinking water, infrastructure, schools and
health, an initial national agenda should be prepared and made ready. Haiti
cannot wait. Haiti cannot be abandoned. And peacekeeping cannot be done on the
cheap.
  Mark L. Schneider is senior vice president of the International Crisis Group
and former director of the Peace Corps.



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