27495: (news) Chamberlain: On eve of poll, Haiti's Aristide silent in exile (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Greg Chamberlain <GregChamberlain@compuserve.com>

     By Paul Simao

     JOHANNESBURG, Feb 6 (Reuters) - For a man known as a  firebrand,
exiled Haitian leader Jean-Bertrand Aristide is keeping a remarkably quiet
profile as the Caribbean nation prepares to elect his successor.
     In Haiti, supporters have danced in the streets calling for Aristide's
return after a coup in 2004 forced him to seek refuge in South Africa.
     But in South Africa, the deposed leader remains an almost invisible
figure shielded by a government keeping him well out of the public
limelight ahead of Tuesday's vote.
     "If there are grounds to think that he's being constrained, it makes
sense because he's here at the indulgence of the South African government,"
said John Stremlau, head of Witwatersrand university's international
relations department.
     "The normal rule of thumb is that you don't allow any political
activity (by an asylum-seeker)," said Stremlau, adding that South Africa
had been generous to Aristide during his stay.
     Aristide began his exile in 2004 in a blaze of goodwill from South
African officials, who accorded him a red carpet welcome after flying him
and his family from Jamaica on President Thabo Mbeki's official jet.
     Aristide was hosted in a luxury government guesthouse for what was
described as a period of "temporary asylum", and later became a visiting
fellow at a South African university where he was reported to be studying
Zulu.
     South Africa's friendly reception for Aristide put it at odds with the
United States and France, which publicly supported the rebellion against
him.
     The South African government still stresses it believes Aristide
remains Haiti's rightful leader, but seems less comfortable with him making
his own political pronouncements.
     Requests to interview Aristide are politely logged at South Africa's
Foreign Ministry, but responses are not forthcoming.
     Sightings of Aristide himself are extremely rare. In January he was
spotted in a daytime foray at a supermarket in South Africa's capital,
Pretoria, but a phalanx of bodyguards prevented observers from getting too
close.
     Amid opposition accusations that South Africa is spending too much on
a man Haitian critics call a corrupt despot, Mbeki's government has replied
that he is virtually penniless and relies completely on official charity.
     Aristide's rare public statements have sometimes resulted in
embarrassment for his South African hosts.
     Last year he held a news conference at which he accused the United
States, France and others of instigating a "black holocaust" in Haiti and
engineering his removal. He also told a university audience he planned to
return to the impoverished island as president.
     In South Africa's last official comment on Aristide, Foreign Minister
Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma said in September he would remain in South Africa so
as not to destabilise the election.
     Despite that pledge, Aristide's shadow looms large over the vote,
which foreign nations have spent $75 million to hold.
     The front-runner, Rene Preval, is an Aristide protege who was
president from 1996 to 2001, between his mentor's two terms.
     Preval has said he sees no reason why Aristide should not be allowed
to return home -- a scenario U.S. officials fear could spark new unrest for
the poorest country in the Americas.