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27684: Hyppolite Pierre: Critical comment on the elections (fwd)
From: Hyppolite Pierre <hpierre@irsp.org>
The elections took place. I think it's reasonable, based on the number of
voters who have participated, to claim that at least close to 60 percent of
those who have registered have actually voted. This proves once more the great
determination of the Haitian people. I am glad. Now however, we have to deal
with the reality.
Preval is ahead, as predicted by the polls. That's a good thing for the
reasonable left. However, he did not officially muster the 50 percent -plus one
vote- required by the electoral law. He may therefore have to go to a runoff.
There are all kinds of rumors circulating off the official list of Bob Corbett.
Many of them are indeed credible, based on reasonable assessments.
Nevertheless, as I always suspected, any one candidate from the left,
especially someone with a direct or indirect "Lavalas" past, would have a hard
time winning these elections. This is why, on at least two occasions on this
very list, I suggested to the left NOT to send a presidential candidate to
these elections. Instead, I thought and am still convinced that the left should
have focused on winning at the municipal and legislative levels so they can
have a voice in the process for long term gains, while reorganizing. This was
obviously, a suggestion ignored by the reasonable left, and as the results
slowly dripping in prove my previous analysis to have been at least partly
correct. Now it's time, while in mid-course, to make some very hard and
difficult yet important decisions.
It is clear that, those who have control over the key institutions want is a
runoff. If this sounds fishy, it may be but that's completely irrelevant at
this point. In any case, should one wish to find reasonable justification of
their doubt, I can at least tell you that on the very day of elections,
February 7, 2006, I read with educated suspicion on the Haiti Democracy Project
website (http://www.haitipolicy.org), what was a soft yet stern warning to
Haitian journalists in Haiti NOT to start publishing results until the CEP make
its final determination. That rose my critical radar and my fear from that
point had been justified. Such HDP warning was most certainly, largely followed
by journalists in Haiti working under miserable conditions in a miserable
country for peanuts.
What is a virtual certainty is that, should Preval agree to go for a runoff
with Manigat, Preval will more likely than not, "lose" by about half a
percentage point. This is true, although as of the last official count, Preval
was ahead of his nearest challenger Manigat by close to 40 percent. I surely
hope that at least some but hopefully most of you do understand what I'm
saying: this is my own style of "double-entendre" :).
Let's nonetheless get to the fact to see how the reasonable left can do what's
right for a democratic Haiti. It's a long process and there will be wins and
losses. Thus far, the reasonable left have won although they can't seem to
properly assess their win.
My suggestions which as usual, will more likely than not be ignored, are the
following:
1- Once the electoral council the CEP, release its final numbers and show the
necessity for a runoff, Preval should officially withdraw his candidacy, and
allow for the two candidates from the right (Manigat and Baker) to face each
other. It will be a waste of time for Preval to go through the process again,
knowing the almost inevitable outcome. All that Preval would do by
participating in a second round, is further legitimizing what is seemingly a
process with an inevitable outcome: his predictable loss;
2- Preval, as the leader of his wing of what I like to call the "Parti
National" LESPWA, should allow other candidates from the wing of that party to
decide individually whether or not they should participate in a runoff election
for municipal and parliamentarian positions.
The left at this point, should retreat and better organize as one sturdy and
cohesive unit with intelligent parts (an intelligent right, left, and center
within a party not owned by anyone). And of course the intelligent right need
to do the same.
The reasonable left need to allow the contradictions that come along with
Haiti's presidency to play themselves out under Manigat. Perhaps most
importantly, they also need to allow the Haitian right to sort through their
own contradictions, for they have plenty.
This may seem to be a controversial post but after all, a win by Manigat is not
a loss for the left, or for the large majority of the Haitian voters. Here are
some possible, if not probable, scenarios:
1. Manigat is a man of the right with a strong sense of his own political
"weight", and an arrogance that even surpasses manifold that of Aristide;
2. Manigat will have to confront his own systemically powerful challengers from
the right, from Baker to Apaid and Boulos, to many others;
3. I can reasonably infer from last Tuesday's showing and the results, that
most of the Haitian electorate will not, will simply not go to a second round
when the two challengers will or would be Manigat and Baker. They will make
their voices heard through abstention; and
4. The rest of the world will thereby, witness who won the presidential
elections on February 7, 2006.
Many other outcomes, positive for the reasonable left, would or will come with
a Manigat victory. In fact, the reasonable right will also begin to determine
the real enemies of the Haitian people. This is exactly what we need in this
current conjecture.
What is essential at this point, is for the left to learn to be patient and to
also respect itself. Folks, remember our peasants' greetings: OnÃ, respÃ.
Unfortunately, thus far, the thirst for power, at the executive level by the
left, has further damaged their true potential for institutional gain in the
long run. They need to learn to win through increments rather than in one fell
swoop.
Preval or the left as a whole, has absolutely nothing to lose by not winning
the presidency. This is a political struggle that needs to be fought with
intelligence and important strategic thinking. Preval has been duped thus far,
and should he even become Haiti's president, I fear much worse. I can tell you
that based on my own assessments, after much thinking of reasonable scenarios,
the best thing for Preval is to simply withdraw his candidacy, once Latortue's
point man at the CEP Jacques Bernard had announced the final results through
the media, confirming the first, and now confirmed whisper of the HDP's of a
runoff.
Let me now hibernate on this white, snowy day in Maryland. I might actually go
skiing, with Charlito Baker of course (although I am sure he wouldn't want to,
as he and his peers think of such suggestion as an insult to his kind).
Enjoy this February day,
Hyppolite Pierre