27841: Hermantin(News)Rays of hope for Haiti's future (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: leonie hermantin <lhermantin@hotmail.com>

Posted on Thu, Feb. 16, 2006


ELECTION
Rays of hope for Haiti's future

BY ROGER NORIEGA
rnoriega@tewlaw.com

Whoever is inaugurated president of Haiti on March 29 will face daunting 
challenges in a country flattened by poverty, exhausted by turmoil and 
bedeviled by a legacy of discredited leadership. No man alive could hope to 
govern Haiti without the legitimacy conferred by honest elections. The matter 
is so important that Haitians voted in great numbers, surpassing expectations, 
slowing the final vote count and producing a close result. Under the rules, the 
top two contenders may have to face each other in a runoff. How these 
candidates and their supporters conduct themselves in this electoral crisis is 
a lesson in how they might govern.

Based on unofficial and impartial results in Haiti's Feb. 7 national elections, 
many observers concluded that René Préval, former president and ally of 
Jean-Bertrand Aristide, had scored a first-round victory on the strength of 
impressive margins won in Port-au-Prince. But Haitians are not finished having 
their say. As the votes from outside the capital are added to the national 
tally, it appears that Préval may fall short of the 50 percent plus one vote 
required to win outright. If these results are certified after alleged 
irregularities are resolved, Préval would have to face a fellow former 
president, Leslie Manigat, in a second-round vote scheduled for March 19.

On Monday, agitated Préval supporters mobbed the tabulation center demanding 
victory, even as the votes were still being counted. The unofficial numbers -- 
posted at www.cepht.org -- seem to paint a picture of a country divided. It 
appears that Préval simply does not have the overwhelming support in the north 
to sustain a national majority.

It is not insignificant that Préval's nearest competitor trails him by around 
35 points. But it is no less important that a majority of Haitian voters cast 
their ballots for someone else or left their ballots blank. Haiti's electoral 
law contemplated just such an eventuality, and it requires a runoff so that the 
majority's voice can be heard clearly.

Haitians have suffered the consequences when, not too long ago, they were 
denied legitimate government because outsiders pronounced slip-shod elections 
as ''good enough'' for Haiti. Now, violent mobs may be trying to convince those 
tallying the ballots that 49 percent is ``good enough.''

To be sure, Préval must be allowed to present any evidence of irregularities. 
Although Haiti's electoral law is fairly clear, no one can predict whether the 
country's electoral machinery will be able to sort through lost ballots and 
illegible tally sheets to sort out a razor-thin electoral result. But that is 
at the very least, a more sound approach than shaving the rules to avoid a 
riot. After all, Préval's opponents -- roughly half the population -- will have 
every reason to reject the legitimacy of a leader who counted on a mob to seal 
his victory. Haitians have had enough of that, and peaceful elections are 
intended to be a step away from such violent methods.

Patience and faith needed

In these tough times, multilateral organizations prove their true worth. United 
Nations and Organization of American States advisors helped deliver a 
triumphant day for Haitian voters, defying the skeptics. Now these same U.N. 
and OAS diplomats are helping Haitian politicians sort out their options and 
providing valuable technical assistance to certify the final results of the 
election.

All candidates should be appealing to their followers to have patience and 
faith in their fellow Haitians as this electoral crisis is overcome. Patience 
and faith are going to be needed in large measure in the years ahead, no matter 
who is finally elected.

In the meantime, René Préval and Leslie Manigat are both capable men who could 
help lead their country to a much better future. Manigat is a wise elder 
statesman, historian and academic who held office for about four months before 
being toppled by a military coup in 1988. And, while history will record that 
this is Préval's second chance to govern Haiti, the political reality is that 
it is his first. Indeed, Haiti watchers know that Préval spent much of his term 
looking over his shoulder for his volatile and violent predecessor.

An early test for Haiti's next president will be whom he chooses as prime 
minister to form a government and whether he respects the constitutional rules 
that strictly limit the president's power. Other tests will be whether he 
welcomes qualified and honest opposition figures in his cabinet and encourages 
his national police to fight crime and corruption. To be sure, international 
donors will insist on transparency and accountability as a condition of 
continued support. And U.N. peacekeepers cannot be expected to stand guard as a 
new government coddles the type of gangsters that Aristide employed to 
terrorize his opponents before they turned on him.

Not too many men in Haiti's bloody history have had more than one chance to be 
president. Manigat and Préval are obviously willing to try. If they put their 
country first and look to the future, they will get through these elections 
having earned the support of friends of Haiti everywhere.

Roger Noriega was U.S. assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere 
affairs from 2003 to 2005. He is a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise 
Institute and a director of the Miami-based law firm Tew Cardenas, LLP.