9705: A new twist in the Haitian Saga (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Senou <senou@yahoo.com>

A new twist in the Haitian Saga
If Aristide wants to spend the rest of his term in
office, he has one more card to play.  He will learn
the lesson for not being a good listener. Soon Mr.
Aristide will be a ceremonial President with limited
power.  He had created his own CEP before he was sworn
in office, this dream idea did not fly.  Now the
President has one “lace d’atout” remaining. The
condition on the field does not give him the latitude
to play any more game. He cannot rely on the loyalty
of his party since all these folks had taken “roulibe”
(free ride) under his name but they are not Lavalas,
since it was the party to run under in order to get
elected.
	When the negotiation resumes, the Lavalas will be
very weak more concession will be made and the
opposition has no interest to run only for 7 senate
seats will play the wait and see game. If Aristide
fails to dismiss this contested congress, he risks
having a congressional Coup D’Etat, which will be
welcome by the opposition. His only chance to survive
is to call for a general election and exit quietly or
call for a redo of the May election, since his
presidency is not yet contested. 
	Aristide is losing support; the upper and lower
chambers are taking notes and will defy the President
if he tries to shorten their term without shortening
his term. Fair game. What do you mean? You are an
elected official and the constitution does not state
that the president has the right to selectively reduce
the term of some branches of the government, if there
will be a cut it should be across the board. When that
time comes the congress will convene and exert its
authority and impeach the president for abusing his
authority in office by a majority vote legally and
propel into the presidency the president of highest
court.
	The president and his ego. It has appeared that the
president may plan to past the power to his wife after
he left office. For that he wants that contested
congress to vote on Double Citizenship law which will
be welcome by most Haitians who are living in the
Diaspora but he will pave the way for his wife to run
for office and the US government may endorse her since
she is a US citizen and Mr. Aristide is banking on it.
At this present moment, most of his loyalists are
against this idea and the congress will not vote on
that issue anytime soon since a few senators want to
run for office and as well as the president inner
circle. 
No one to trust, Mr. Aristide may sacrifice the whole
congress and call for a redo of the may election or
even call for a general election which will take the
world by surprise and makes him look like a democrat. 
	One thing remains certain the opposition is not going
to let Mr. Aristide plays a ping-pong game with the
presidency. The # 2 of the current regime is already
contested his latest visit in Montreal had drawn a few
curious, the primer Minister is counting days, weeks
or months to be dismissed or to save face he should
resign. A clear dispute between the primer minister
and his interior Minister is a sign that he is not in
control, the primer minister has no power to fire a
member of his own cabinet; in fact he did not pick his
cabinet all members were placed by the president
himself that reduce his role.  The senate is
discussing on the senate floor luxurious lifestyle of
some members of the government and the purchase of a
castle to house the prime minister for over 1.5
million dollars is ridiculous. Close 750,000 haitian
gourds were vanished from the tax collection. Recently
the police had confiscated the car of a member of the
congress with bandits on board “Zenglendo” and that
guy is in hiding afraid to get busted by Aristide
police (small army), some members had called to remove
his immunity in order to response to any charge and
the government may make him an example of the
government “zero Tolerance” against Zenglendo and
corruption.  
It is impossible for this current government to
survive. Mr. Aristide should play his last card or
risk to lose all. (Ask Mr. Florestal to resign, form a
coalition government, call for a redo of may election,
assist in forming an impartial CEP with credible
people and ask the international community to
supervise the election before it’s too late)
Now the next question: calling for a redo of the May
election may compromise the November election, since
everyone is on his/her own there won’t be any loyalty
to the party any more this is the intention of the
opposition. If you think the opposition wants to go
only for the congressional election with full
knowledge none of its member has a chance to get
elected, “Vous etes en train de vivre dans l’irréel du
present” ou “ vous avez l’esprit en Espagne”, the
ultimate goal of the opposition is to either get rid
of Mr. Aristide or makes him a ceremonial president
which might be a tough thing to do but not impossible.
It is unfortunate that both are being manipulated by
the international community, which is indeed dictating
the course of the negotiation (but one can say the
course of this arbitration) and the poor people of
Haiti are victims of this fierce game.   With all this
going on,  Haiti has become the most unpredictable
place in the region
Joseph Alfred, teacher
P.O. BOX 334   Smyrna, GA 30081


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