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#3682: On electoral statistics and participation ... (fwd)
From: Max Blanchet <MaxBlanchet@worldnet.att.net>
-- According to the Haitian Embassy web site, Haiti's
population in 1995 was 7.18 million and the demographic
growth rate was 2.08%.
-- On this basis, I estimate today's population to be
7.96 million (7.18x1.0208x1.0208x1.0208x1.0208x1.0208).
-- Based on the age distribution given on the same web site,
I estimate the % of the population 18 and above to be
-- This translates into a total potential voting population of
4.38 million, give or take 250,000.
-- According to the Organization of American States, 4 million
Haitians were registered, or roughly 91.3% (4x100/4.38.)
-- After I had read and heard so many negative reports about
the registration process, I was very skeptical at first about the
claims of the OAS. Then I discussed the issue some more with
contacts in Haiti and the US and reached the conclusion that
the OAS is probably right, especially after reading its report.
-- Before registration started, I had postulated that Haitians
would register in a big way given half a chance. I thought it
would be a way for Haitians to affirm their sense of citizenship.
This, I believe, has been confirmed. All in all, the CEP did in
the final analysis a decent job!
-- What % of the registered voters will go to the polls?
This is very difficult to predict. If one looks at electoral
participation from December 1990 until April 1997, one
cannot fail to notice that participation has experienced a
steep decline, from perhaps 70% down to 5-10%. On the
other hand, if one is to believe the ECOSOF poll - a new
initiative in Haitian politics and one that must, in my opinion,
be taken with a grain of salt - carried out in November 1999,
a large majority of Haitians can be expected to participate.
-- My prediction is that participation may very well be
substantial, especially if the current "akalmi" holds.
-- How will the political parties, especially Fanmi Lavalas
and OPL, the key protagonists, fare in the process?
Well, it will be interesting to find out!