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#3921: What is Lavalas afraid of? : Grey comments


In a message dated 5/28/2000 12:07:09 AM Eastern Daylight Time, Greg 
Chamberlain writes:

<< As Kathy Grey points out, there are dozens of joke "opposition parties" 
composed of one man, his wife and a couple of pals, which are solemnly taken 
seriously outside Haiti (partly because people believe the discours of the 
"leader politique").>>

And partly because they believe the discourse of the International Republican 
Institute, which lends credibility to these tiny parties - I call them "house 
parties" because all of the members generally live in one house!  LOL!  The 
IRI should be barred from Haiti.

<<However, the arrests seem to be mainly of OPL figures, a more serious 
political group.  What on earth can Lavalas (the government) be afraid of if 
they have just won a landslide? >>

You know, I've been thinking a lot about this over the past few days.

Let us assume for the moment that Mike Norton's report is true to the letter. 
 I don't have any reason to believe differently, and Norton's track record is 
honorable.  So what is Lavalas afraid of?

The fact that they just swept the polls might not be very comforting to them. 
 I am sure they remember that Aristide had such a huge majority the election 
officials stopped the count, it was too embarrassing to the American 
government.  And despite that, the "fos fe nwa", the forces of darkness, 
meaning the Haitian elite and the military with all of their international 
eggers-on, despite that, I say, they staged a coup and killed thousands to 
make it stick.  In fact, it was *because* Aristide had so much support that 
the putchistes had to be that barbarous, if they hadn't terrorized the 
population into submission they couldn't have held on.

Soooo... I suppose an huge electoral majority doesn't mean that the winner is 

Now, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the OPL would stage a coup 
if they could.  Remember that they are not seeking "what is best for Haiti", 
they are seeking POWER, and magouj, and all that stuff, just like everyone 
else.  They would probably rationalize it and make public statements saying 
that they want "what is best for Haiti".  Raoul Cedras spoke to selected 
press two days after the coup, and called the coup a "democratic correction" 
required to "save Haiti", do most of us remember that?

I think the bottom line is where the weapons are.  Who has them, how many, 
what kind, and are they habituated to using them?  We know that the murderous 
Haitian Army was disbanded but not disarmed.  Likewise attaches, FRAPH, and 
that whole bag of filth.  Obviously they are not going to come out on 
Aristide's team!  Therefore the fears of the Lavalas folks are not so 
groundless as they may seem to us, nice and safe in the USA.

But if the Lavalas leadership fears that the OPL is willing *and* able to 
make a coup, they should go after the weapons!  Not that prospective 
putshistes couldn't re-supply themselves with the help of the US right wing, 
or whoever - but at least, having found weapons in someone's yard, they have 
reasonable grounds for arresting that person.  Just as in the USA, people 
under arrest will talk, and give up the bigger fish to the frying pan, you 

Peace and love,

Bon Mambo Racine Sans Bout Sa Te La Daginen

"Se bon ki ra", 
     Good is rare - Haitian Proverb

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