13894: ayiti1804: Miami Herald 11-30-02 Flood of Discontent (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Haiti 1804 <ayiti1804@hotmail.com>

Miami Herald
<http://www.miami.com/mld/miami/4633880.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp>

Posted on Sat, Nov. 30, 2002

A flood of discontent rises around Aristide
Key groups oppose Haitian leader
BY MARIKA LYNCH
mlynch@herald.com

When university students took to the streets in Port-au-Prince this week,
their chants described the nation's political situation this way: ``Aristide
has fallen; he's just stuck in a tree branch.''

The chant demonstrates a changing dynamic that threatens the foundations of
President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's government, according to several
analysts. An opposition once limited to a frail coalition of political
parties has broadened to include other key groups that bring a new vigor to
the political fight.

This week alone, a group of writers, a union, the nation's most prominent
business organization, the bar association and a coalition of church and
human rights groups all pointedly condemned the government for what one
group called creating a ``climate of terror.''

Opponents blame Aristide's administration for letting his supporters
paralyze Port-au-Prince with burning barricades a week ago, and letting
political gangs intimidate opposition members, among other things.

For some longtime Haiti-watchers, the protests have a familiar ring.

''The reports from Haiti bear a strong resemblance to the events that
preceded the downfall of the Duvalier regime in 1986,'' said Steve Horblitt,
who works for Creative Associates International Inc., a Washington
consulting firm with a Haiti office. ``[Aristide] has alienated key sectors
in Haitian society.''

''The thought that he'll be bum-rushed out of there is increasing,'' said
James Morrell, of the Haiti Democracy Project. ``The support is really,
really dwindling. He's got armed thugs on the streets. It's a question of
money with [Aristide], and how much money to keep paying them.''

HARD TO READ

Analysts say trying to gauge if or when Aristide steps down is a high-risk
gamble.

As protests erupted around the country Thursday , Aristide was emphatic
about finishing his term. The opposition is but a small minority, he said.

The president called for peace and warned the Haitian people about the
dangers of another coup. Aristide has blamed the unrest on the opposition
umbrella group Democratic Convergence and on former military officers who he
says are hungry for power. Yet the effects of the last days are resounding
from the northern port town of Gonaves to Washington, D.C.

''Haiti is unraveling. We're meeting to look at what our options are, which
are pretty bleak,'' a high-level Bush administration official said.

Part of the problem is that there is no clear successor in the post-Aristide
era. The opposition Democratic Convergence is a cluster of ideologically
divergent parties usually grouped around a personality. And even though
Aristide is losing popularity, he still commands loyalty, as evidenced by
Friday's pro-government demonstration.

The demonstration coincided with the 15th anniversary of the deaths of 15
voters in Haiti's first democratic election after the fall of the 29-year
Duvalier family dictatorship. On Nov. 29, 1987, after months of violence,
100 voters were queuing up to cast ballots at Argentine Bellegarde High
School, when army and paramilitary attackers went from classroom to
classroom, shooting at and hacking voters with machetes. The elections were
later suspended.

''Aristide or death!'' 2,000 Aristide partisans chanted Friday, marching to
the National Palace. ''If Aristide isn't there, who will replace him?'' In
the meantime, more than 1,000 antigovernment demonstrators marched in St.
Marc, about 50 miles northwest of the capital.

The U.S. Embassy in Port-au-Prince has said that calling parliamentary
elections -- to rectify the 2000 elections, which observers said were
riddled with fraud -- is the only solution. But the Bush administration
official said Haiti is ``turning into a noncountry.''

SUCCESSION VACUUM

Given the lack of a clear post-Aristide leader, some U.S. officials wonder
quietly whether Haiti should be declared a ''failed state'' and be handed
over to the United Nations or the Organization of American States for
temporary administration.

The most recent round of protests in Haiti began Nov. 17, when a civic group
in Cap-Hatien organized a march. With more than 10,000 people, it was the
largest demonstration against Aristide and his Lavalas party ever.

Other protests followed around the country.

In a show of force, Aristide supporters burned barricades Nov. 22 in
Port-au-Prince, paralyzing the city.

But many groups have lent their voice in anti-government chants. University
students began to speak out after the government took a larger role in
running the institution, and high school students took to the streets. Four
were shot by police in the western town of Petit-Gove during one march last
week, angering many.

The student movement is a bellwether for Haitian politics and shouldn't be
underestimated, said Tony Maingot, a Haiti expert and professor at Florida
International University. In 1985, the shooting of three high school
students during a demonstration sparked protests that helped oust
Jean-Claude Duvalier.

''The history of Haiti is when the high school students get involved, they
don't stop,'' Maingot said. ``There is a tenacity like piranhas.''

------------------------------------------------------------------------

© 2001 miami and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved.
http://www.miami.com

_________________________________________________________________
Add photos to your messages with MSN 8. Get 2 months FREE*.
http://join.msn.com/?page=features/featuredemail