15660: Anonymous: Should Aristide Leave Or Not?

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

SHOULD ARISTIDE LEAVE OR NOT ?

The issue of accepting Aristide rule until February 2006 (approximately three
years from now) , as the 1987 Haitian Constitution sets up, has been the
growing concern of many Haitian and international sectors. This has been so
from especially June 2000 after a controversial legislative contest where an
overwhelming number of pro-Aristide legislators "won."

The concern is growing because of too many constitutional violations, scandals,
ani-democratic moves, and very negative economic developments produced by the
anachronistic Lavalas regime.

In truth, Aristide should leave or be compelled to leave not only because of
moral and performance reasons but because of its potential deleterious impact
on the American hemisphere and its negative influence on other democratic
transitions in the Least Developed Country (LDC) community. He should leave as
soon as possible because:

1) He has been the ruler who has caused the most dramatic impoverishment of the
Haitian people in Haiti history by not forging an economic strategy to create
jobs, and opportunities.

2) He has been the most insensitive ruler to Haiti plight while pretending to
be sensitive.

3) He has beaten records in national mismanagement regarding the cooperative
affair, the exchange rate depreciation, and petroleum subsidies.

4) He has been involved in very fraudulent transactions like the Baninter
financial bankruptcy eloquently showed.

5) He is not in truth concerned about the present and the future but about the
dead past bine obsessed to "celebrate" January 1, 2004, the 200th Haiti
Independence anniversary.

Those local and international sectors favoring Aristide stay in power argue
that nobody can replace him and that he was democratically elected.

- Regarding the first argument, it is not valid at all as experience vividly
shows. Nobody is indispensable in politics as in life and there is always a
replacement option.

- Regarding the second one, Aristide’s electoral score during the last 2000
elections was not totally sound. There were obvious frauds. Moreover,
"democratic" elections are not similar to democratic tenure. Any ruler’s duty
is to develop national competitive advantages, to create wealth, jobs,
opportunities, to solidify social structures and social cohesion. Should he be
unable to do that or at least a minimum, he should go as soon as possible.



There is more than that. In a recent World Bank study, Paul Collier warned that
durable poverty is highly favourable to social turmoil, civil war, with
international repercussions such as refugee displacement, diseases, and
terrorism.

The major mistake that many make is to believe in Haitian unshakable level of
resignation in front of tough daily conditions. Any realistic observer in Haiti
can easily note that this classical resignation myth is not given for ever and
that the present "calm" atmosphere in Haiti (because of slight gourde
appreciation and artificial agreement between Haitian officials and
international institutions) is highly misleading. The Baniniter affair will
probably growingly contribute to stir popular anger and frustration against the
highly unproductive Lavalas regime.