17209: Severe: On Elections (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Constantin Severe <csevere@hotmail.com>

Corbetteers,
Just ran across some news stories that the American Ambassador in Haiti,
James Foley, supported new elections as long as they were honest.  I have
only seen this in French language media. I don't know if any of the English
langugage reporters have filed a story on this yet.
Assuming that this statement is correct, has US changed its position towards
Aristide or just a shot across the bow to the opposition that they consider
compromising? With the recent agreements with the IDB and IMF it seems as
the donor nations(read, US,OAS) are tiring of the current situation and want
the situation settled. Is the Convergence running out of time to win the
Haitian people over to its side.
While there has been a lot of speculation of the convergence's support in
the U.S. because of its links to the IRI and other entities, at least until
the November 2004 U.S. elections, it would not be in the white house's
interest for Aristide to be pushed out. First, the U.S. still has egg on its
face for seemingly supporting an attempted coup against a  rabble rousing
leftist in Venezula, a political situation that bears at least some surface
similarities to Haiti. Second, if Arisitide was pushed out, he wouldn't go
quietly raising the specter of civil war and a wave of refugees on Florida's
beaches just in time for election day. Third, if Aristide was pushed out and
the convergence through some miracle or disaster(depending on your p.o.v.)
took power who would actually lead the country?  A judge, a junta of your
favorite convergence leaders, or the opposition leader who was able to claw
his way to the top. The convergence seems to be a marriage of convenience,
with Aristide out of the way their would be nothing to hold them together.
Given all those variables and a U.S. foreign policy towards Haiti that is
immigration driven(keeping Haitian boat people out of the U.S.) it would
seem the only way the covergence can take power is through elections.

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