18775: Blanchet: A fractured nation: Alex Dupuy and Bob Maguire (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Max Blanchet <MaxBlanchet@worldnet.att.net>


> HAITI: A FRACTURED NATION
> Transcipt of a PBS TV Newshour special on Haiti
> February 16, 2004
>
> Up to 50 people have been killed in Haiti over the past ten days in
clashes
> between antigovernment forces and those loyal to President Jean-Bertrand
> Aristide. Ray Suarez speaks with two regional experts about the roots of
the
> conflict, Aristide's presidency and the U.S. role in ensuring democracy in
Haiti.
>
>
> The root of the conflict
> RAY SUAREZ:  For more on the developments in Haiti, we get two views. Alex
> Dupuy is a professor of sociology at Wesleyan University specializing in
> development, the Caribbean and Haiti. Born in Haiti, he's now an American
citizen.
> And Robert Maguire is director of the Haiti program at Trinity College in
> Washington, D.C. He has consulted on Haiti and Caribbean issues for both
government
> agencies and nongovernmental organizations.
>
> Professor Dupuy, the last time Haiti was regularly in the news in the
United
> States and featured large in our foreign policy might have been almost ten
> years ago now when, with the help of American troops, President Aristide
was
> restored to power. What happened between that optimistic time in the
mid-'90s and
> now to lead Haiti back to where it is again?
>
> ALEX DUPUY: Well, basically the problem stems from the crisis in 2000
brought
> about by the parliamentary elections of May 2000 and the November
> presidential elections of November of that same year where the OAS had
observed the
> balloting of May 2000 and found that seven seats were wrongly assigned to
the
> ruling party or to the party of President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, and the
OAS
> demanded a rerun of the seven seats in the second round. But the then
independent
> election council refused and the government of President Preval also
refused to
> reverse the ruling of the CEP and as a result the OAS boycotted the second
> round of the parliamentary elections and also the presidential elections
of
> November.
>
> The opposition parties, coalesced into the Democratic Convergence and
later
> into the Civil Society Group of 184, refused to recognize the legitimacy
of the
> entire elections and not just the seven seats and also because they
boycotted
> both the second round and the presidential elections they refused to
> recognize Aristide's reelection as president of Haiti. Since then, they
have been
> calling for Aristide's resignation from office and basically have been
unable or
> unwilling rather to enter into a serious negotiation with him to resolve
the
> crisis peacefully.
>
> Aristide, for his part, where I think he went wrong, was to have recourse
to
> his armed gangs, the supporters known as the chimeres to basically
intimidate
> the opposition, and the fact that he used violence led to a spiraling
crisis
> basically of violence met by more violence on the opposition side and more
> violence on the part of Aristide supporters, and despite efforts by the
OAS to
> mediate the crisis from 2000 on, they have not been able to bring the two
parties
> to the table.
>
> The opposition parties, for their part, were supported by the United
States
> in mainly the International Republican Institute and the USAID which
supported
> them and also they received some funding for the European Union. As a
result
> of that they saw no need to really enter into negotiations with Aristide
> because the U.S. made it clear to them that they would not recognize an
outcome to
> the conflict that did not include the opposition parties.
>
> So in that sense even though they represented, if you will, at the time a
> minority of the population, they really had no incentives to enter into a
serious
> negotiations with Aristide.
>
> RAY SUAREZ: Let me turn to Bob Maguire at this point. You've got
Aristide's
> national police force and, as Professor Dupuy mentioned, his irregular
gangs on
> the street. Now the rebel side of the equation is attracting new armed men
> and growing larger in some of these provincial cities. Is this a country
on the
> verge of all-out civil war?
>
> ROBERT MAGUIRE: Well certainly there's regional areas for the potential of
a
> civil war. These gangs that are now fighting against the government at one
> time some of their members were aligned with the government. But Mr.
Aristide I
> think under some international pressure had begun last summer to try to
reel in
> some of these gangs. One of the brothers of one of the gang leaders in
> Gonaives was murdered allegedly at the hands of Mr. Aristide's government.
>
> In this sense some of those gangs that had been loyal are now against him.
> Joining those gangs now as the piece demonstrated that you showed before
our
> interview is the fact that you have some nefarious characters coming over
from
> the Dominican Republic who are well-armed and have military experience.
This
> could change the calculus of the situation.
>
> RAY SUAREZ: Is Aristide someone who is able to regain control of the
> situation, run a Haitian government that has effective day-to-day civil
control of the
> country?
>
> ROBERT MAGUIRE: At this point, Ray, I think that's questionable. The
country
> is so deeply polarized, so deeply split, I think that maybe Mr. Aristide
has
> to take some very dramatic action to indicate that he can have the
credibility
> that he needs for others to engage him and to move forward.
>
> You know, the opposition, as Alex mentioned, has not really engaged Mr.
> Aristide in trying to resolve this crisis that emanated out of elections
in 2000.
> But then again, Mr. Aristide has not fully lived up to some of the things
that
> he said. So I think he does have a bit of a credibility problem with the
> opposition and it seems to me that there is an onus on Mr. Aristide to
make some
> dramatic action now. He has pledged some action to the group of
commonwealth
> Caribbean nations, the Caricom Group.
>
> On Feb. 1, he met with representatives of Caricom in Jamaica and coming
out
> of that is something that's being called the Kingston Plan, which is where
Mr.
> Aristide would reel in the gangs, he would support the resumption of
> negotiations with his opponents to create an interim governing council
that could name
> a prime minister and that could lead the country to some kind of elections
> with Mr. Aristide maintaining his role as president and that the national
police
> would be supported, the police would be built up again.
>
> I think that it's now somewhat the responsibility of the opposition to
> respond to this as well. Mr. Aristide has agreed with Caricom that he will
do these
> things. It might be very helpful however if Mr. Aristide would demonstrate
> some action to do something to give confidence to every one else that he
will
> move forward.
>
> RAY SUAREZ: You noted in your opening remarks, Professor Dupuy, that the
> United States has begun to pull back on its support for the Aristide
government
> yet at the same time in the last couple of days Secretary of State Powell
said
> the United States will accept no outcome that attempts to remove the
elected
> president of Haiti. So while they don't support him, they also don't
support him
> being removed?
>
> ALEX DUPUY: Well that's correct. This is the first clear policy we've
heard
> from the Clinton, from the Bush administration on the situation in Haiti.
Up to
> Friday's statement by Secretary of State Powell, the Bush administration
had
> in fact been sending very mixed signals to both the opposition and to
> President Aristide.
>
> As I said before, throughout the negotiations the U.S. always blamed
> President Aristide for the breakdown in negotiations when, in fact, the
opposition
> also had a role to play in that. As Bob Maguire mentioned, Aristide does
suffer
> from a credibility problem with the opposition and that's justifiable
because
> of the violence that his supporters have meted out to the opposition
members.
> But nonetheless the opposition also has refused to negotiate seriously
with
> Aristide. As a result both sides have been locked into a sort of a
dialogue, if
> you will, of the deaf. They're talking past each other. No one wants to
listen
> to the other side.
>
> That said, it is a welcome statement by Secretary of State Powell to
suggest
> that the resolution of the crisis must be done through a peaceful
negotiations
> and rather than through violence because, as you mentioned in your opening
> statement, President Aristide has said that he will not resign. He will
carry
> out his -- the remaining of his five-year term and the opposition needs to
be
> pressured by its supporters, principally in this case the United States to
also
> come to the negotiating table. Otherwise the violence will continue to
spiral
> and indeed bring Haiti on the brink of a civil war.
>
> So there is no viable alternative to negotiations, and at this point I
> believe that even though President Aristide was certainly wrong to have
had recourse
> to the violent gangs who support him, it is difficult to imagine that he
> would seriously crack down on those gangs when, in fact, he's now facing
an
> uprising not only by a former gang members who supported him at one point,
as Bob
> mentioned, but now joined by former members of the Haitian -- the army and
the
> paramilitary death squads that were allowed with the military during the
three
> years of Aristide's -- of the coup d'etat against Aristide.
>
> So the only way to resolve the crisis is for the U.S. not only to bring
> pressure on President Aristide to make goodwill gestures towards the
opposition,
> which he must do, but they also need to put pressure on the opposition to
> realize once and for all that only a negotiated solution can bring an end
to the
> crisis.
>
> RAY SUAREZ: Is the United States indispensable in intervening in this at
this
> point? Do you share this?
>
> ROBERT MAGUIRE: Absolutely, Ray. The U.S. is an indispensable actor and I
> would very much agree with Alex that the political calculus that changed
in
> Washington after 1994 really did hurt the Clinton administration
initiatives that
> restored Mr. Aristide. There were constraints put up against those
initiatives
> almost immediately after the Republicans took the House of Representatives
in
> '94 and it was in part perhaps to undermine Clinton policy but it ended up
> undermining Haiti. Mr. Aristide and the Haitians were pretty much left to
their
> own devices as the U.S. had a policy of no mission creep, no nation
building
> and a quick exit strategy.
>
> We're seeing that particularly those chickens coming home to roost when it
> comes to the Haitian national police. That began as a very, very positive
> initiative in bringing police under civilian control, strengthening the
police force
> and getting some good people in there. I still think there are remnants of
> those good people in there, but that force is beleaguered, it's corrupt,
and it
> might be outmatched by some of these commandos that have come in.
>
> RAY SUAREZ: Bob Maguire, Professor Dupuy, thank you both.
>
> ______________________________________________
>
>
> This email is forwarded as a service of the Haiti Support Group.
>
> See the Haiti Support Group web site:
> www.haitisupport.gn.apc.org
>
> Solidarity with the Haitian people's struggle for justice, participatory
> democracy and equitable development, since 1992.
> ____________________________________________