20382: Lemieux: BBC anaysis: Haiti's new hopes and challenges (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: JD Lemieux <lxhaiti@yahoo.com>


Haiti's new hopes and challenges
By Marco Vicenzino
Deputy Executive Director, International Institute for
Strategic Studies-US (IISS-US), Washington DC

Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's departure marks
a new beginning for Haiti.

There is hope for the Western hemisphere's poorest nation,
if the international community remains engaged through a
long-term commitment.

There is also hope if ordinary Haitians assume
responsibility for real change and end the vicious cycle of
political violence and endemic corruption that has plagued
Haiti since its independence from France in 1804.

The immediate objective for international forces is to
restore order and prevent a humanitarian disaster.

Time is of the essence. All insurgents and militias must be
disarmed to stop widespread looting and revenge killings.

The flow of supplies - primarily food and medicines - must
be restored throughout the country, due to the threat of
certain areas being cut off.

Election politics

The constitutionally-mandated transfer of power to the
chief of Haiti's Supreme Court - as head of state - upon Mr
Aristide's resignation provides some hope, as does the
expressed willingness of rebel commander, Guy Philippe, to
disarm and allow for democracy in Haiti.


With no strategic interest in Haiti but a desire to
re-engage the US in global emergency management, France has
assumed a significant role by seizing the diplomatic
initiative

However, what are the real chances of success in Haiti?
In the absence of strong leadership by a major power,
success in Haiti is likely to be limited.

The US backs a United Nations multilateral effort, while
avoiding a leading role and assuming a supporting role.

Election-year politics are clearly influencing this
decision.

Florida is a critical election state and the Bush
administration is trying to avoid a re-enactment of the
1980 Mariel boatlift of thousands of Cubans, which damaged
then-President Jimmy Carter's re-election efforts.

US deference

In addition, the US is reluctant to become directly
involved in a long-term engagement with an uncertain
outcome.


The rationale is that, after committing 20,000 US troops to
restore Mr Aristide to power in 1994 and investing more
than $1bn in aid, the US has very little to show for it.
In addition, with increasing anti-US sentiment in the
region, US troop presence may be counter-productive to the
long-term operation and to relations with regional
neighbours.

US willingness to defer to French and Canadian officials to
call for Mr Aristide's resignation was evidence of this
reluctance and a clear sign that France and Canada will
most likely lead the UN multilateral effort in Haiti.

With no strategic interest in Haiti but a desire to
re-engage the US in global emergency management, France has
assumed a significant role by seizing the diplomatic
initiative.

It already has nearly 4,000 troops stationed in its
Caribbean possessions of Guadeloupe and Martinique.

Canada, with its extensive experience and solid reputation
in peace-keeping, is well-positioned for a leading role.

Government 'priority'

The Organization of American States (OAS), the multilateral
regional forum of the Americas, is likely to take a
secondary role, due to discord in its ranks over
intervention in Haiti.


International efforts will fail unless Haitians, both the
political elite and ordinary citizens, assume
responsibility for their own future and end the vicious
cycle of political violence

It is also preoccupied with other regional problems, such
as the current crisis in Venezuela, growing instability in
the Dominican Republic, Ecuador and Peru and the continuing
fragility of Bolivia, whose president was removed last
October.
Several important steps must be completed in order to
achieve success in Haiti.

Creating a broad-based interim government of national unity
must be an immediate priority for Haitians.

It must include elements of the political opposition,
primarily from the ranks of the Democratic Platform, a
coalition of civic groups.

Preparing Haiti for eventual elections must be a primary
item of its agenda.

Its success can only be guaranteed through the involvement
of the UN and OAS, and NGOs such as the Carter Center, with
its vast experience and prominent reputation in
election-monitoring, particularly in Latin America.

Vicious cycle

Creating a new Haitian security force remains essential to
Haiti's long-term stability.


The Haitian army was disbanded by Mr Aristide upon his
restoration to power by 20,000 US troops in 1994.
It was replaced by an inefficient, poorly-equipped and
poorly-trained police force of 5,000, which simply
dissolved as the rag-tag rebel forces advanced.

A new security force must be well-equipped and
well-trained, not only in tactics, but in respecting the
rule of law and the democratic institutions.

This will not occur overnight, but the process must begin
now.

Establishing a truth and reconciliation commission, similar
to South Africa's, remains essential for Haitians to come
to terms with their past and end the vicious cycle of
political violence which has plagued Haiti since its
independence.

Of 42 heads of state, 29 have been either assassinated or
overthrown.

Starting anew

The international community must restore critical economic
aid, which was suspended after the flawed 2000 legislative
elections.

However, such aid must be accompanied by greater
accountability and transparency.

Every dollar must be accounted for.

Aimlessly signing cheques will solve nothing and contribute
to the usual pervasive fraud.

Imposing strict standards will ensure the efficient
allocation of aid and reassure ordinary Haitians that they
are the beneficiaries - not traditionally corrupt
officials.

Over time this may nurture a greater sense of fairness,
civic duty, responsibility and trust in authority, not
fear.

Ultimately, international efforts will fail unless
Haitians, both the political elite and ordinary citizens,
assume responsibility for their own future and end the
vicious cycle of political violence.

Although Haiti faces massive challenges, they are not
insurmountable.

2004 marks 200 years of Haitian independence and should be
used as an opportunity to start anew.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/world/americas/3534673.stm

Published: 2004/03/04 22:39:54 GMT

© BBC MMIV


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