27647: Matt Jay: Haiti election results.(Commentary) Math Jay (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Jepiem@aol.com

When one looks at the partial results from the Haiti election results,  it is
becoming rather clear that Rene Preval is going to come our ahead of all  his
competitors. Many including myself were predicting a second round to decide
on the final winner. Some, may be by wishful thinking are still expecting a
second round between Preval and Leslie Manigat. Even though the count is still

partial, when one samples the different areas of the different departments,
Preval's support seems to be spread throughout the Republic. When he is not
first, he is no less than fourth with a respectable showing. Furthermore he is

so far ahead of the pack in the areas where there are the most voters that it
is  difficult to imagine him not winning outright. This being said, we still
don't  know what Preval's vision is for getting Haiti out of the sick bed
where it has  been lingering to at least start making some hesitant steps
towards
recovery.  Yet the people en masse went to vote for him. There is a lesson
there somewhere.  Amid all this euphoria or surprise at the facts that the
election  took place at all,  that there was no violence to speak off ( that
really
shouldn't have been because the masses aren't the ones that caused  the
violence in previous elections), and that some peoples' favorite  candidates
showed
such dismal lack of support, it must be remembered that  the same forces that
helped contribute to the destabilization of the political  situation under
Aristide will not rest because of a so called successful  election. Quite the
contrary this may be what they had wanted all along, witness  the arrest and
jailing of Jean Juste who was becoming a threat and the  denial of the
candidacy

of Simeus. How would their action be a threat?  Remember that according to the
Constitution which is supposed to be in effect  and that they will certainly
pull from their back pocket when needed, it is the  Prime Minister who has all
the executive power. And the Prime Minister is  supposed to be proposed by
the majority "party" in the  Legislature. Now comes the real hitch. What is a
party in Haiti and who controls  that? People have been paying little attention

to the election of the  Legislature and this may be the biggest flaw of these
elections Only time will  tell. One more concern of course is the return of
Aristide which in my opinion  would be by all counts a destabilzing factor.
Beyond that however even if  he were to return and not cause too much trouble
for
the next five years is  the looming possibility of another Aristide candidacy
after Preval, repeating  the vicious cycle. It will be another challenge of
this new regime to create or  start creating the conditions in the country
where

this Messiah driven urge  to vote is replaced by a conscious and educated
electorate who chooses its  leaders not because of sentimental attachement but
because of ideology and that  is much further in the future of Haiti if ever.
Math Jay

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