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8920: Remain posted for a special annoucement (fwd)

From: Senou <senou@yahoo.com>

Remain posted for a special announcement! Everyone
knows unless the suspected Senator is apprehended, the
Senate will not vote on the immunity issue. If the
Senator is arrested he will implicate others as well
and make it look like a political plot. The Lavalas
government is aware of the intention of the Senator
who used to be the most loyalist partisan of the
president. This case if mishandle can start an
unplanned civil war. Now the one billion dollars
question who can arrest the Senator in Haiti? Will he
take over the government if anyone tries to arrest
him? Will his arrest start a civil war since his
partisans had protested violently before? Can the
Senator Stage A Coup d'Etat? Will his colleagues in
the Senate support a constitutional coup d'Etat? Will
his former camarades  (the military) help him out, a
forced coalition might be possible, the Senator has
nothing to lose, his political career is over, he
might just go ahead and seize the power. Who has the
key of the remaining tanks of the Haitian disbanded
army?   Will the US government stop him from taking
power? No. As a former CIA agent, the US government
may not interfere and cite internal conflict. Can the
Lavalas government claim that Democracy is in danger
if the Senator wants to take power? Will the
convergence support the Senator? Initially yes, but in
the long run, No. Since the Senator is likely getting
rid of the convergence worst enemy, most members will
support him.	No political group can take away the
power from the Lavalas for the next 15 years, but
internal conflict within that group might shorten that
free ride. The powerful force of Mr. Aristide is
putting to test not by the convergence but by his most
loyal member. The president does not have the liberty
to say a word against the Senator, now the other
biggest question who is in charge of Haiti? Prime
Minister Florestal, Aristide or the Senator. (Mr.
Preval était un president de doublure). Don't be
surprised to wake up to hear Flash! Flash! We are
already in that fragile month, 10 years ago today it
was the Soviet Union.  

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